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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
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Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Karolina Hird,
Kateryna Stepanenko, and Fredrick W. Kagan
February 3, 2024, 7:50pm ET
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Click
here to
see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to
see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy
tool.
Click
here
to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.
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The Kremlin is doubling down on its support for Iran as the US conducts strikes to
preempt attacks by Iranian-back proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen against American and other targets. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
condemned the US retaliatory strikes against Iranian-backed militia positions in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen on February 3. The US launched a series of retaliatory airstrikes against targets in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen on February 2 and 3 following a January 28 drone
strike by an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia that killed three US servicemembers in northeastern Jordan. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova condemned the strikes as a “blatant act of American-British aggression” and claimed that they demonstrate US policy’s
“aggressive nature” and “complete disregard for international law.” Zakharova claimed that the US airstrikes are “specifically designed” to further inflame the conflict in the Middle East. Zakharova criticized the United Kingdom (UK) for participating in the
strike and claimed that the UK “has yet to answer” for its “zeal” in supporting provocative US policy. Russian state media reported extensively on the strike’s aftermath and amplified Iranian, Iraqi, and Syrian state reporting and condemnations of the strike. Russia
requested a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting in connection with the US strikes, which is scheduled for February 5. Russia frequently weaponizes its invocation of international law to undermine legitimate US activities in the Middle East.
The Kremlin censored a protest by wives of mobilized soldiers in Moscow on February
3 likely to suppress any possible resurgence of a broader social movement in support of Russian soldiers and against the regime. Members of the Russian
“Way Home” social movement laid flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow before holding a protest at the nearby Manezhnaya Square to commemorate the 500th day since Russian President Vladimir Putin began partial mobilization in September 2022. Russian
state media outlets largely did not cover the protest but did report that the Moscow Prosecutor’s Office warned against attending an unspecified protest in Moscow on February 3, very likely referring to the Way Home protest. Russian opposition media outlets
covered the protest in detail, however, estimating that roughly 200 people attended, and reported that Moscow police detained 27 individuals, most of whom were Russian and foreign journalists. The opposition outlets reported that authorities later released
the detained individuals without charges and that some of the Way Home members protested outside of the police station for the release of all detained individuals. Russian police allowed Way Home protestors to later go to Putin’s campaign headquarters and
handwrite appeals to Putin to bring mobilized personnel home, but the headquarters only allowed small groups of demonstrators inside and severely limited media access. Russian law enforcement likely deliberately detained journalists rather than protestors
to limit reporting of the event while depriving the Way Home organization of a platform on which to martyr itself in the information space over the arrests of its members.
Key Takeaways:
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The Kremlin is doubling down on its support for Iran as the US conducts strikes to preempt attacks by Iranian-back proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen against
American and other targets.
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The Kremlin censored a protest by wives of mobilized soldiers in Moscow on February 3 likely to suppress any possible resurgence of a broader social movement
in support of Russian soldiers and against the regime.
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Soviet leadership experienced first-hand the influence that social movements of relatives of Russian soldiers wielded in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and
the Kremlin likely aims to preemptively censor and discredit similar movements before they can garner similar influence.
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Putin may have learned from the Soviet Union’s prior failure to completely censor soldiers’ relatives and changed tactics, instead using limited censorship
and discreditation to keep these movements from building momentum.
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Russian milbloggers continued to fixate on a recent unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast and highlight divisions it
caused within the Russian information space, which are indicative of wider issues with the Russian military’s ability to adapt in Ukraine.
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Ukrainian actors conducted a drone strike against the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on February 3.
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Ukrainian strikes reportedly temporarily slowed Russia’s production of Lancet loitering munitions.
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Russian state media confirmed the appointment of two new officials to senior positions in military-adjacent civilian organizations.
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Russian forces made confirm advances near Bakhmut amid continued positional engagements along the frontline.
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Russian soldiers imprisoned for refusing to fight in Ukraine are reportedly dying in Russian detention.
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Russian authorities continue efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth through the school system.
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