Ashka Jhaveri, Alexandra Braverman, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

Israel withdrew some IDF units from Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on May 30, according to local Palestinian sources. The local authorities from Hamas’ Emergency Committee told displaced Palestinian civilians to avoid returning to Jabalia at this time because “there are still dangerous remnants.” A local Palestinian journalist said that Israeli forces remain in the northern and eastern parts of Jabalia. The IDF confirmed on May 30 that at least one of the three brigades that were in Jabalia is still there. Palestinian militias claimed several attacks targeting Israeli forces in and around Jabalia, further indicating that Israeli forces are still in the area.

The partial Israeli withdrawal from Jabalia follows some of the most intense fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters during the war. The IDF reentered Jabalia on May 11 after assessing that Hamas and other Palestinian militias were rebuilding their capabilities and networks there. Hamas was able to do so despite the IDF killing Hamas’ local battalion commander there in October 2023. The IDF assessed two weeks into the Jabalia operation that three Hamas battalions are active there rather than just one. Palestinian militias conducted an unusually high rate of attacks targeting Israeli forces in Jabalia during this period. IDF officers described the fighting there as some of the most intense of the war.

Hamas and other Palestinian militias will almost certainly resume their efforts to reconstitute in Jabalia as Israeli forces withdraw. There are remaining pockets around Jabalia that Israeli forces have not cleared. Hamas and other militias have probably moved into some of these areas to preserve their forces. Hamas will capitalize on these remaining forces to rebuild their capabilities and networks in and around Jabalia as Israeli forces leave. US and Israeli officials have expressed concerns that Hamas will survive in the Gaza Strip without a post-war plan that involves an alternative to Hamas rule.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Israel reportedly withdrew some IDF units from Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip. Hamas will almost certainly try to exploit these withdrawals to continue reconstituting its forces.

• Iran: The registration period for the Iranian presidential election began. One only prominent individual, hardliner Saeed Jalili, has registered thus far. The registration period lasts until June 3.

• Syria: Syrian President Bashar al Assad traveled to Tehran to meet with senior Iranian officials. The visit may be part of recent efforts by Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” to coordinate their actions vis-a-vis the Israel Hamas war.

• West Bank: The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that its fighters entered Bat Hefer in Israel to kill an IDF officer there. The claim comes amid an uptick in activity around the Israel-West Bank border, specifically around Bat Hefer.

Click here to read the full update.

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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