Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Fredrick W. Kagan with Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, and Christina Harward

January 14, 2024

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

Ukraine is dramatically expanding its defense industrial capacity to develop the ability over time to satisfy its military requirements with significantly reduced foreign military assistance. Ukraine is pursuing three primary lines of effort to achieve this goal: increasing its domestic defense industrial base (DIB), building bilateral and multilateral partnerships with European states, and pursuing industrial joint ventures with the United States and other international enterprises to co-produce defense materials in Ukraine and elsewhere. Ukraine will require considerable Western military assistance for several years, and its ability to reduce its dependence on such assistance depends in part on whether it can liberate strategically vital areas currently occupied by Russian forces, among other factors. But Ukraine and its Western partners are executing a realistic plan to create a sustainable basis for Ukraine to be able to defend itself over the long term with dramatically reduced foreign military assistance.

Ukraine’s prospects for sustaining its military forces with limited assistance over the long term are excellent. Ukraine is heavily industrialized with a highly educated and technically sophisticated population. It had a massive arms industry during the Soviet period and continued to be a significant arms exporter after independence. The Russian occupation of key industrial areas and destruction of important centers of weapons production, especially the Kharkiv tank factory, has degraded but not eliminated the solid base on which Ukraine can build a viable DIB to support its military forces in the future.

Ukraine’s efforts to establish defense industrial self-reliance are also strengthening the European DIB as Ukraine works to integrate itself with European partners. Ukraine established in late 2023 a Defense Industries Alliance, an association allowing international defense manufacturers to work with the Ukrainian DIB, and 38 companies from 19 countries joined the alliance by the end of the First International Defense Industries Forum in Kyiv on September 29, 2023. Ukraine hosted over 250 defense companies from more than 30 countries during the forum to establish the joint production of weapons in Ukraine as well as Ukrainian production of weapons abroad. Ukraine signed at least 20 agreements and memorandums with foreign partners on the manufacture of drones, repair of military equipment, and armored vehicles and ammunition joint production, technology exchanges, and components supplies. Zelensky announced during the forum that Ukraine will reduce red tape to incentivize investment in Ukraine’s defense industry and establish a defense fund that will be replenished through defense enterprises’ dividends and the sale of confiscated Russian assets.

Note for readers: ISW will launch a new section within the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment to track the development of Ukraine’s DIB and the international support for Ukraine’s DIB efforts. ISW will be forming its assessments of Ukraine’s and international DIB efforts based on public announcements, media reporting, and official statements. ISW will not report news about Ukraine’s defense manufacturing not already discussed by open sources.

Click here to read the full special report.

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