|
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
|
|
|
Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W.
Kagan
January 28, 2024, 8:30pm ET
|
|
|
Click
here to
see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to
see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy
tool.
Click
here
to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.
|
|
|
Kremlin officials and mouthpieces continue to set information conditions to destabilize
Moldova, likely as part of efforts to prevent Moldova’s integration into the EU and the West among other objectives. Alexei Polishchuk, the director of
the Second Department of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Countries at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), claimed in an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS published on January 28 that Moldova has begun to “destroy its ties” with CIS
member states and the Russia-led CIS organization as a whole and that there are rumors that Moldova plans to leave the CIS by the end of 2024. Polishchuk claimed that this decision would not benefit Moldovan interests or citizens and would be unprofitable
for the Moldovan economy. Polishchuk also claimed that the settlement of the Transnistria issue in Moldova is in a “deep crisis” and that Moldova’s economic pressure on Transnistria since the beginning of 2024 has “further delayed” any solution. Polishchuk
claimed that Russia is ready to fix deteriorating relations between Moldova and Transnistria “as a mediator and guarantor” to the settlement. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian stated on January 28 that Moldova would not return to the 5+2 Transnistria
negotiating process that included Russia as long as Russian-Ukrainian relations do not improve and Russia’s war in Ukraine continues.
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger, who has recently fixated on the Moldova-Transnistria
conflict, continued to highlight alleged discontent in Moldova’s breakaway and autonomous regions. The milblogger claimed that about 50,000 people in Transnistria participated in a rally protesting against Moldovan economic pressure on Transnistria on January
24. The milblogger also stated that Sergei Ibrishim, the Head of the Main Directorate of Agro-Industrial Complex of Gagauzia, sent a request recently to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for Russia to send fertilizer to Gagauzia as humanitarian aid. Ibrishim
also reportedly claimed that Gagauzia’s agricultural producers are unable to sell their products to Russia after Moldova’s decision in July 2023 to leave the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly and asked Lavrov to abolish excise taxes and customs duties for Russian
imports from Gagauzia. Polishchuk’s and the milblogger’s comments are likely aimed at dissuading Moldova from leaving the CIS and Russia’s wider sphere of influence, setting information conditions to create economic discontent within Moldova, and posturing
Russia as an economic and security guarantor in Moldova.
Russia notably accused Ukraine of abandoning and disregarding the Minsk Agreements that had largely frozen
the conflict after Russia’s 2014 invasion in the lead up to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Russia may be setting information conditions to make similar claims against Moldova. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin is likely setting information
conditions to justify future Russian aggression in Moldova under the guise of protecting its “compatriots abroad” and the “Russian World” (Russkiy Mir) - concepts that are purposely based on vague definitions of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in foreign
countries. Russia may attempt to justify its aggression or destabilization efforts in Moldova by claiming that Transnistrian residents are in danger due Moldova’s alleged abandonment of the Transnistria settlement process. ISW recently observed suggestions
that the Kremlin may be turning to rhetorical narratives that appeal to a wider audience beyond the “Russian World.”
Key Takeaways:
- Kremlin officials and mouthpieces continue to set information conditions to destabilize Moldova,
likely as part of efforts to prevent Moldova’s integration into the EU and the West among other objectives.
- Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin reiterated that the Kremlin
is not interested in any settlements short of the complete destruction and eradication of the Ukrainian state, likely in an ongoing effort to justify the long-term and costly Russian war effort to domestic audiences.
- The Kremlin also continues to frame and justify a long-term Russian war effort as part of an existential
geopolitical confrontation with the West and Nazism.
- Ukrainian Navy Commander Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa emphasized the importance of Ukraine’s
ability to technologically adapt and develop as Russian forces continue to adapt to Ukrainian operations in a January 27 Sky News interview.
- The Kremlin will likely use the withdrawals of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from the Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to continue efforts to expand Russian influence in Francophone Africa.
- Unnamed Indian government sources stated that India wants to distance itself from Russia, its
largest arms supplier, because the war in Ukraine has limited Russia’s ability to provide India with munitions.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting
throughout the theater.
- A Russian source claimed that Rosgvardia is forming the 1st Volunteer Corps with remaining Wagner
Group personnel and newly recruited volunteers (dobrovoltsy) following the Kremlin adoption of the law allowing Rosgvardia to form its own volunteer formations in December 2023.
-
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on January 28 that Ukraine and Russia will conduct a prisoner
of war (POW) exchange in the near future.
|
|
|
Donate online or
by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.
ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible
to the extent permitted by law.
|
|
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy
research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging
threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.
|
|
|
|
|
