Kelly Campa, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter



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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on June 17 that it has dismantled about half of Hamas’ forces in Rafah. The IDF 162nd Division advanced into Rafah on May 7 and the IDF said that it now controls approximately 60 to 70 percent of the governorate, including the Egypt-Gaza Strip border. The IDF assesses that it has almost completely “dismantled” two of four battalions in Hamas’ Rafah Brigade and that IDF units have “somewhat degraded” the other two battalions. An Israeli media correspondent estimated that Israel will take “several more weeks” to completely “dismantle” Hamas’ Rafah Brigade.  Israeli forces have also located 200 tunnel openings, 25 of which led to tunnels that reach the border with Egypt. The IDF said that its forces have killed at least 550 Palestinian fighters in Rafah since the start of ground operations. Twenty-two 162nd Division soldiers have died during fighting in Rafah. An Israeli Army Radio correspondent said that the IDF will shift to a “targeted raid” approach in the whole of the Gaza Strip after the end of the Rafah operation. Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip have already shifted to this approach to target reconstituting Hamas units.

Hamas’ Rafah Brigade will likely survive with sufficient assets to reconstitute itself, given the time and space to reconstitute. Successful reconstitution requires a commander to disengage their force from combat. An Israeli war correspondent said that an unspecified number of Hamas fighters left the Rafah area when Israeli forces first entered Rafah. This cadre of surviving Hamas fighters assigned to the Rafah Brigade could provide Hamas commanders in Rafah sufficient human capital to rebuild the Rafah Brigade over time absent sustained Israeli military pressure against the Rafah Brigade. The IDF has discovered large numbers of Hamas fighters in previously uncleared areas during other operations. Israeli forces found that three battalions—not the expected one battalion—had withdrawn into a previously uncleared area of Jabalia prior to early May, for example.

The Houthis conducted four attacks that caused physical damage to commercial vessels between June 9 and June 13, possibly indicating an increase in the effectiveness of Houthi attacks.  A British maritime security firm said on June 14 that recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels demonstrated a “significant increase in effectiveness” in Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. CTP-ISW has observed that Houthi attacks have struck commercial vessels at a rate of about 0.4 impacts per week since the beginning of the Houthi attack campaign in November 2023. Separate Houthi attacks on two ships on June 9 caused fires aboard both vessels. The Houthis then launched a remote-controlled, one-way attack naval surface drone targeting the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned Tutor on June 12. A British maritime security firm said that one crewmember died in the attack, marking the second crew fatality in the Houthi attack campaign. The Houthis struck the Palauan-flagged, Ukranian-owned, Polish-operated M/V Verbena with ballistic missiles on June 13, causing the vessel to catch fire and the crew to abandon ship.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Hamas’ Rafah Brigade will likely survive with sufficient assets to reconstitute itself, given the time and space to reconstitute. An Israeli war correspondent said that an unspecified number of Hamas fighters left the Rafah area when Israeli forces first entered Rafah.

• Israeli Operations in Rafah: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on June 17 that it has dismantled about half of Hamas’ forces in Rafah.

• Iranian Presidential Election: Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be struggling to consolidate support among Iranian youth, a key voter demographic. The Sharif University students’ statements—while not emblematic of all individuals in this demographic—are demonstrative of the increased disillusionment of Iranian youth in recent years.

• Yemen: The Houthis conducted four attacks that caused physical damage to commercial vessels between June 9 and June 13, possibly indicating an increase in the effectiveness of Houthi attacks.

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ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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