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[ISW] 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁(이란) 업데이트, 2024년 6월 24일

by Summa posted Jun 25, 2024
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```html 주요 사항

주요 사항

  • 가자지구: 하마스는 군대를 재건하는 더 큰 노력의 일환으로 가자지구에서 무기 생산 능력을 재건하고 있습니다. 하마스는 또한 이를 위해 18세 청소년을 모집하고 훈련하기 시작했습니다.
  • 이란: 이란 대선 후보들은 다가오는 선거의 세 번째 토론에서 사회 문화적 문제에 대해 논의했습니다. 유력한 후보 중 누구도 오랜 정권 정책에 근본적인 변화를 지지할 것이라고 말하지 않았습니다.
  • 서안지구: PIJ는 이스라엘-서안지구 국경 근처인 바트 헤퍼 주변에서 IED를 폭파했습니다. 이 공격은 최근 몇 주 동안 이 지역에서 팔레스타인 무장 세력의 활동이 증가한 가운데 이루어졌습니다.
  • 레바논: 베이루트-라픽 하리리 국제공항의 근로자들은 레바논 헤즈볼라에 대한 이란의 무기 공급이 증가하는 것에 대해 우려하고 있는 것으로 알려졌습니다.
  • 이라크: 하마스는 카타르에서 이라크로 정치 지도부를 이전할 계획인 것으로 알려졌습니다. 이란과 이라크 연방 정부는 이라크에서 하마스 지도자들에게 보안을 제공할 것으로 알려졌습니다.

분류: 중동 안보 관련 국가: 이스라엘, 이란, 레바논 향후 전망: 하마스는 이스라엘과의 갈등에서 우위를 점하기 위해 군대를 재건하고 있습니다. 이란은 레바논 헤즈볼라에 대한 지원을 계속 확대하고 있습니다. 서안지구에서 팔레스타인 무장 세력의 활동이 증가하고 있습니다.
```

[원문]

Iran Update

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Andie Parry, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, Katherine Wells, and Nicholas Carl


Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

Hamas is rebuilding its weapons production capacity in the Gaza Strip as part of a larger effort to reconstitute its military forces. An Israeli military correspondent reported on June 24 that Hamas is establishing small weapons manufacturing sites across the Gaza Strip in order to replenish its stockpiles of military equipment and weapons. The replenishment of these resources is a key component of the reconstitution of a military force.


Reconstitution consists of two general tasks: reorganization and regeneration. Reorganization involves a commander redistributing the resources at their disposal to restore attritted units to a minimal level of effectiveness. Regeneration is a more complex, resource-intensive, and time-intensive process “that requires large-scale replacement of personnel, equipment, and supplies.” This process naturally involves replenishing stockpiles of military equipment and weapons. Hamas is also recruiting 18-year-olds and trying to train them as part of that reconstitution effort, as CTP-ISW previously reported, which is crucial to restoring combat units. These reports indicate that at least some Hamas commanders have begun to regenerate the forces and materiel under their command and could become again prepared to engage Israeli forces.


The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is trying to disrupt Hamas’ reconstitution efforts by targeting relevant Hamas officials. The IDF conducted an airstrike killing a Hamas weapons production specialist in Gaza City on June 23. The IDF stated that the specialist developed “strategic” weapons for Hamas and oversaw several weapons development cells. The IDF has killed about 45 weapons production specialists from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) since the war began.


Hamas will likely try to exploit the absence of Israeli forces throughout much of the Gaza Strip in order to facilitate its reorganization and regeneration efforts. A commander usually must disengage their force from opposing forces to efficiently and successfully reconstitute. Hamas has exploited IDF withdrawals in much of the Gaza Strip to rebuild the combat power of degraded Hamas battalions, integrate new forces, and prepare them for further combat activities. This is particularly accurate in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone, where Hamas has reportedly established weapons production workshops.


Key Takeaways:


  • Gaza Strip: Hamas is rebuilding its weapons production capacity in the Gaza Strip as part of a larger effort to reconstitute its military forces. Hamas has also begun trying to recruit and train 18-year-olds to this end.


  • Iran: Iranian presidential candidates discussed socio-cultural issues during the third debate of the upcoming election. None of the presumed frontrunners suggested that they would support fundamental changes to long-standing regime policies.


  • West Bank: PIJ detonated an IED around Bat Hefer, which is near the Israel–West Bank border. The attack comes amid an uptick in Palestinian militant activity in the area in recent weeks.


  • Lebanon: Workers at Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport are reportedly concerned about an increase in Iranian weapons deliveries to Lebanese Hezbollah.
  • Iraq: Hamas is reportedly planning to relocate its political leadership from Qatar to Iraq. Iran and the Iraqi federal government would reportedly provide security to Hamas leaders in Iraq.


Click here to read the full update.

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the IsraelHamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.



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