Moderate politician Masoud Pezeshkian won the Iranian presidential runoff election on July 5. Iranian media reported that Pezeshkian received over 16 million votes, while his opponent, ultraconservative hardliner Saeed Jalili, received approximately 13.5 million votes. Pezeshkian and Jalili won approximately 10.4 million and 9.5 million votes respectively in the first round of voting on June 28. The Iranian Election Headquarters announced that voter turnout in the runoff presidential election was 49.8 percent, marking an approximately 10 percent increase from the first round of elections on June 28. Pezeshkian will be inaugurated on an unspecified date between July 22 to August 5. Pezeshkian’s presidency will mark a departure from hardline President Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency. Pezeshkian has repeatedly criticized Raisi’s presidency in recent weeks.
Pezeshkian previously served as a senior health official in the reformist Mohammad Khatami administration from 2000-2005 and as a parliamentarian from 2008 to 2024. Pezeshkian hails from Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province, and is fluent in Azeri and Kurdish. Pezeshkian is trained as a physician and served as a medic during the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988. He later served in the reformist Khatami administration as health and medical education minister. Pezeshkian is currently a parliamentarian representing East Azerbaijan Province and has held this role for 16 years. He served as a deputy parliament speaker in 2016. Pezeshkian was disqualified from running in the 2021 presidential election, making his recent qualification and subsequent presidential win noteworthy.
Pezeshkian will likely attempt to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West, although it is unclear to what extent Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will permit him to do so. Pezeshkian called for increasing international engagement with Western actors and endorsed a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) throughout his campaign. Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign affairs minister under reformist president Hassan Rouhani who helped negotiate the JCPOA in 2015, has played a prominent role in Pezeshkian’s campaign, suggesting that Pezeshkian is committed to resuming negotiations. Pezeshkian separately supported resolving issues with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The FATF blacklisted Iran in February 2020 for failing to implement anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing policies. The Supreme Leader has previously expressed foreign policy and nuclear views that promote domestic production over economic engagement with the West, making it unclear to what extent Khamenei will permit Pezeshkian to engage with Western actors. Khamenei has also indirectly criticized Pezeshkian’s campaign and has called on him to “continue [former hardline president Ebrahim] Raisi’s path” in his presidency.
Key Takeaways:
- Iran: Moderate politician Massoud Pezeshkian won the Iranian presidential runoff election on July 5. Pezeshkian’s presidency is unlikely to generate meaningful changes within the regime. It is noteworthy, however, that Khamenei allowed Pezeshkian to win given that the next Iranian president may oversee Khamenei’s succession.
- Ceasefire Negotiations: Anonymous Israeli officials said that the main sticking point in ceasefire negotiations centers around Article 14, which states that the United States, Egypt, and Qatar will “make every effort” to ensure negotiations end in an agreement and that a ceasefire is held as negotiations continue. Hamas seeks to remove the phrase “make every effort,” leaving only “ensure.”
- Gaza Strip: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported on July 6 that the 98th Division located a weapons warehouse in Shujaiya containing long-range rockets and explosive charges.
| 
[ISW] 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁(이란) 업데이트, 2024년 8월 15일