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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 7월 8일

by Summa posted Jul 09, 2024
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```html 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 상황 업데이트 (2022년 7월 8일)

주요 요점:

  • 7월 8일, 러시아의 Kh-101 순항 미사일이 키이우 중부에 위치한 오흐마티트 어린이 병원을 공격했습니다. 이는 우크라이나 전역의 중요한 인프라를 표적으로 삼은 일련의 미사일 공격 중 하나였습니다.
  • 러시아 관리들과 정보 공간 주체들은 관련 미사일과 병원의 상태에 대한 거짓 주장을 하여 오흐마티트 어린이 병원 공격에 대한 책임을 회피하려 하고 있습니다. 이는 모두 입증 가능한 증거와 상충됩니다.
  • 7월 8일 러시아의 미사일 공격은 이러한 일련의 공격으로 인한 피해를 극대화하기 위한 새롭고 주목할 만한 전술을 사용한 것으로 보입니다.
  • 헝가리 총리 빅토르 오르반과 중화인민공화국(PRC) 주석 시진핑은 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴이 진지한 협상이나 제3자 중재를 거부했음에도 불구하고 7월 8일 베이징에서 열린 회의에서 우크라이나 전쟁을 종식시키기 위한 잠재적 중재자로서 자신을 내세웠습니다.
  • 러시아 부사령관 세르게이 리필린이 부사령관 블라디미르 보로비요프를 대신하여 러시아 발트 함대 사령관이 되었습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 최근 차시브 야르에서 상실한 진지를 탈환했고, 러시아군은 최근 도네츠크 시와 자포리자주 서부에서 진격했습니다.
  • 러시아 총리 미하일 미슈스틴은 7월 8일 러시아가 2030년까지 국내 드론 생산량을 5배 늘릴 것을 촉구했습니다.

분류:

  • 군사
  • 외교
  • 정치

관련된 주요국가:

  • 러시아
  • 우크라이나
  • 헝가리
  • 중국

향후 전망:

  • 러시아는 앞으로도 우크라이나의 중요한 인프라를 표적으로 삼은 미사일 공격을 계속할 것으로 예상됩니다.
  • 러시아는 우크라이나 전쟁을 종식시키기 위한 진지한 협상이나 제3자 중재를 거부할 것으로 예상됩니다.
  • 러시아는 앞으로도 국내 드론 생산량을 늘리기 위한 노력을 계속할 것으로 예상됩니다.
```

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan


July 8, 2024, 6pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in central Kyiv during a wider series of missile strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated that Russian forces conducted two rounds of combined missile strikes on July 8—first launching four Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and Kursk Oblast overnight on July 7 to 8, and then launching a second wave of missiles, including one Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one 3M22 Zircon cruise missile, 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles, and three Kh-59/69 guided air missiles around 1000 local time on July 8. Ukrainian air defense shot down two Kh-101s in the first wave, and one Kh-47, three Iskanders, 11 Kh-101s, 12 Kalibrs, and three Kh-59/69s during the second wave. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces targeted residential and other civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk cities.


Footage taken by a bystander in Kyiv City shows the second before a Russian missile struck the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital—Ukraine's largest pediatric hospital that treats thousands of patients, including cancer cases, daily. The footage clearly shows a single missile flying at a sharp downward trajectory before making contact with the hospital building. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted a preliminary investigation of the blast site at Okhmatdyt and concluded that Russian forces used a Kh-101 missile to strike the hospital. The Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital published footage showing extensive damage to medical facilities on the premises. Falling debris from Russian missiles also struck the Isida Maternity Hospital in western Kyiv City after the initial strike on the Okhmatdyt hospital, and Russian missile strikes also damaged residential infrastructure elsewhere both in Kyiv and Dnipro cities. The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs has confirmed 22 deaths and 74 injured in Kyiv City and 11 deaths and 64 injured within Dnipropetrovsk Oblast as of the time of this publication. Zelensky announced that Ukraine is convening an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in response to these Russian strikes. Russia is currently the president of the UNSC.


The July 8 Russian missile strikes likely employed a new and noteworthy tactic to maximize the damage from such strike series. Former Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated following the strikes on July 8 that Russian forces are constantly improving their reconnaissance and strike drone capabilities and the efficacy of both cruise and ballistic missiles, noting that during the July 8 strike Russian cruise missiles flew at "extremely low" altitudes. Ihnat noted that in some cases, Ukrainian air defense forces had to attempt to intercept cruise missiles flying as low as 50 meters above the ground. Ukrainian air defenses have historically had high shoot-down rates for certain types of cruise missiles, particularly the older Kh-101 variety, but Ihnat's suggestion of Russian forces launching cruise missile strikes at such low altitudes indicates that Russian forces may have innovated their tactics and/or technology somewhat to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian infrastructure by giving Ukrainian air defense practically no time to respond until the missile is already within close range of the ground. Ihnat noted that Russian forces are reducing the electromagnetic signatures of the drones until the last possible moment to prevent their detection by Ukrainian forces, which Ihnat noted means that by the time Ukrainian forces detect the drone, the missile the drone was guiding could already be close to the target point. Russia has consistently adapted the strike packages it uses against Ukraine to take advantage of Ukraine's air defense shortages, and the July 8 strikes represent a new and adapted strike package that Ukraine will need to learn to respond to with requisite levels of Western-provided air defense systems.


Key Takeaways:


  • A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile hit the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in central Kyiv during a wider series of missile strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8.


  • Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to deflect responsibility for the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital strike by making false claims about the missiles involved and the state of the hospital — all contrary to available evidence.


  • The July 8 Russian missile strikes likely employed a new and noteworthy tactic to maximize the damage from such strike series.


  • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping continued to posture themselves as potential mediators to an end to the war in Ukraine during a July 8 meeting in Beijing, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of serious negotiations or any third-party mediation.


  • Russian Vice Admiral Sergei Lipilin replaced Vice Admiral Vladimir Vorobyov as Russian Baltic Fleet Commander.


  • Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently advanced near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.


  • Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin called on July 8 for Russia to increase its domestic production of drones fivefold by 2030.


Click here to read the full assessment.

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.



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