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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 8월 4일

by Summa posted Aug 05, 2024
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핵심 요점:

  • 우크라이나군은 8월 4일 로스토프 주의 석유 저장소와 점령된 루한스크 시의 연료 저장 창고에 드론과 미사일 공격을 가했다고 합니다.
  • 우크라이나는 미국산 F-16 전투기의 첫 번째 배치를 수령했다고 확인했습니다.
  • 러시아 군사 블로거들은 F-16의 도착에 대응하여 전장에서의 잠재적 영향을 축소하려고 시도했습니다. 이는 F-16 및 기타 서방 무기 시스템의 제공을 넘을 수 없는 "적색 경계"로 규정하려는 러시아 정보 작전을 직접적으로 훼손합니다.
  • 러시아군은 최근 포크로브스크 동쪽, 도네츠크 시 서쪽, 도네츠크-자포리자주 경계 지역에서 진격을 확인했습니다.
  • 러시아 국방 산업은 서방에서 공급한 부품을 사용하여 미사일을 계속 생산하고 있다고 합니다.
``` ### 분류: 군사 ### 관련된 주요국가: 우크라이나, 러시아, 미국 ### 향후 전망: 우크라이나 전쟁은 계속될 것으로 예상되며, 러시아는 우크라이나의 영토를 더 많이 점령하려고 할 것입니다. 우크라이나는 서방 국가들의 지원을 받아 러시아에 저항할 것으로 예상됩니다.

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Nicole Wolkov, Riley Bailey, Davit Gasparyan, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan


August 4, 2024, 3:30 pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on August 4. Russian opposition outlet Astra published footage and reported on August 4 that Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in Azov, Rostov Oblast. Rostov Oblast Governor Vasily Golubev announced on August 4 that fire fighters were extinguishing a large fire at a warehouse in Azov, but specifically noted that Russian authorities would establish the cause after extinguishing the fire. Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed on August 4 that Ukrainian forces launched eight ATACMS missiles and four Storm Shadow missiles at Luhansk City. Pasechnik claimed that Russian air defense shot down four missiles, that some missiles struck warehouses containing fuel storage, and that some falling missile debris caused dry grass to catch fire. Footage published on August 4 purportedly shows two smoke plumes over Luhansk City. Luhansk Oblast Military Administration Head Artem Lysohor reported fires at the Luhansk machine-building plant in Luhansk City, where Russian forces reportedly repair and store military equipment. ISW cannot confirm what type of missiles Ukrainian forces used in the Luhansk City strike at this time.


Ukraine confirmed that it has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on August 4 that Ukraine received an unspecified number of F-16s from unspecified Western countries and specifically thanked Denmark, the Netherlands, and the US. The Economist reported on August 4 that Ukraine has so far received 10 of the promised 79 jets and that Ukrainian forces should be able to fly 20 F-16s by the end of 2024. ISW continues to assess that Ukraine will need a substantial number of F-16 jets in order to field them at the scale necessary for Ukraine to succeed in integrating fixed wing aircraft into its wider air defense umbrella. Ukraine will also notably need to continue efforts to target Russian air defense assets within the Russian rear and in occupied Ukraine with Western-provided long-range weapons to enable its use of F-16 jets.


Key Takeaways:



  • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on August 4.


  • Ukraine confirmed that it has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets.


  • Russian milbloggers responded to the arrival of F-16s by trying to downplay their potential battlefield effects—directly undermining Russian information operations intended to frame the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons systems as an uncrossable "red line."


  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances east of Pokrovsk, west of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.


  • The Russian defense industry reportedly continues to produce missiles using Western-sourced components.

Click here to read the full assessment.

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.



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