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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 8월 5일

by Summa posted Aug 06, 2024
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러시아 국방부 요인 체포, 타지크 이주 노동자에 대한 출국 전 기준 강화, 우크라이나 드론 공격 등

주요 요점:

  • 러시아 당국은 8월 5일 대규모 사기 혐의로 러시아 국방부 패트리어트 파크 책임자 뱌체슬라프 아흐메도프와 러시아 국방부 혁신개발국 부국장 블라디미르 셰스테로프 소장을 구금했습니다.
  • 러시아 국방부 내 여러 사령부의 인사 이동을 정확히 예측한 러시아 내부 소식통은 8월 5일 러시아 국방부 주요 기갑국장 알렉산더 셰스타코프 중장이 조만간 자리를 비울 것이라고 주장했습니다.
  • 러시아 안전보장회의 서기 세르게이 쇼이구는 8월 5일 테헤란에서 이란 대통령 마수드 페제슈키안, 군 참모총장 모하마드 바게리 소장, 이란 최고 국가안보회의 서기 알리 아크바르 아흐마디안 등 이란 고위 관리들과 회담했습니다.
  • 러시아는 2024년 3월 크로커스 시청 테러 공격 이후 이슬람 국가 아프가니스탄 지부 IS-호라산(IS-K)으로부터의 안보 위협에 대처하기 위한 러시아의 지속적인 노력의 일환으로 러시아에서 일하기를 희망하는 타지크 이주 노동자에 대한 출국 전 기준을 강화하고 있습니다.
  • 우크라이나 주요 군사 정보국(GUR)은 위성 이미지를 인용하여 우크라이나 드론 공격이 8월 3일 로스토프 주 모로좁스크 비행장에서 Su-34 폭격기와 탄약고를 파괴했다고 보고했습니다.
  • 러시아군은 토레츠크와 포크로프스크 동쪽과 도네츠크 시와 로보티네 근처로 진격했습니다.
  • 크렘린은 우크라이나에서 싸운 러시아 참전 용사들을 국내 정치적 역할에 배치하기 위한 노력을 계속하고 있습니다.
분류: 군사, 정치, 안보 관련 국가: 러시아, 우크라이나, 이란, 타지키스탄 향후 전망: 러시아 국방부 내부의 부패와 인사 이동은 러시아 군대의 전투력과 사기에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 러시아와 우크라이나 간의 전쟁은 계속될 것이며, 러시아는 우크라이나에서 점령지를 합병하기 위한 노력을 계속할 것입니다. 러시아와 이란은 군사 및 경제 협력을 강화할 것입니다. 러시아는 타지키스탄에 대한 영향력을 유지하기 위해 노력할 것입니다.

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

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Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan


August 5, 2024, 5:40pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD's Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5. Russian law enforcement told Kremlin newswire TASS that they suspect Akhmedov and Shesterov of embezzling over 40 million rubles (roughly $471,000) during public procurement for the park and warned that there may be additional defendants in the case. Patriot Park was reportedly the personal project of former Russian Defense Minister and current Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, and recently detained former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov reportedly oversaw construction of the park. A Russian milblogger who is particularly critical of the Russian military command praised Akhmedov's and Shesterov's arrests and claimed that Akhmedov and Shesterov were part of the "old team" that controlled the Russian MoD under Shoigu's leadership, suggesting that their arrests are "indicative" of Shoigu's diminishing influence. A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD suggested that recently dismissed former Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov, who is reportedly involved with Russia's National Defense Control Center, could be the next high-ranking MoD official to be arrested. Russian officials have arrested several senior Russian defense officials since April 2024 on similar corruption charges. Russian milbloggers previously theorized that the arrests of Ivanov and other high-ranking defense officials affiliated with Shoigu could be indicative of Shoigu's declining influence within the Kremlin, as well as the Kremlin's desire to "clean house" of Shoigu's old guard affiliates under the Russian MoD's new leadership.


A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on August 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD's Main Armored Directorate, Lieutenant General Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future. Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Shestakov as head of the MoD's Main Armored Directorate days before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Shestakov is responsible for the MoD's efforts to plan and mobilize Russia's production of armored vehicles. ISW cannot confirm this potential command change at this time.


Key Takeaways:



  • Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD's Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5.


  • A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on August 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD's Main Armored Directorate, Lieutenant General Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future.


  • Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met with various high-ranking Iranian officials, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akhbar Ahmadian in Tehran on August 5.


  • Russia is tightening pre-departure standards for Tajik migrants hoping to work in Russia, likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to address security threats from the Islamic State's Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024.


  • Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), citing satellite imagery, reported that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed an Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast on August 3.



  • Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk and Pokrovsk and near Donetsk City and Robotyne.


  • The Kremlin continues efforts to position Russian veterans who have fought in Ukraine in domestic political roles.


Click here to read the full assessment.

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