Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Katie Wells, Siddhant Kishore, Marcus Mildenberger, Ria Reddy, Carolyn Moorman, Gabriel Wein, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

Iranian armed forces-run Defa Press published a list of potential civilian and military targets in Israel on August 5, which likely aims to decrease Israel’s ability to effectively defend against an Iranian attack by causing Israel to air- and missile-defense assets and creating panic among civilians. The list includes Israeli military bases and government sites like the Israeli Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, the Israeli Knesset building in Jerusalem, and eight airbases across Israel. Iran also named civil infrastructure sites like airports, gas fields, and power plants throughout the country. Iran may or may not try to attack any of these targets or others. Iran’s decision to explicitly name these targets, which are spread throughout Israel, likely seeks to cause the Israel Defense Forces to disperse air- and missile-defense assets across a wide area. Iran may calculate that by causing Israel to spread out its defenses, this information effort will increase the likelihood that Iran can hit some of its targets. The US-Israeli coalition intercepted the majority of Iranian drones and missiles outside of Israel during the April 13, 2024 attack on Israel. Drones and missiles fired from Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria would be much harder to intercept than those launched from Iran given the shorter distances and flight times to Israel.

The target list is not necessarily an indicator of what exact targets Iran will strike in response to Israel’s targeted killing of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. These targets are not all proportionate with Haniyeh's killing, and publishing some of the targets likely seeks to create informational and economic effects instead of identifying precise targets. Other targets would be significant escalations and seem likely to cause civilian causalities, which Iran would likely calculate is counter-productive to efforts to establish deterrence with Israel.

Iran’s identification of targets in Israel does not independently verify CTP-ISW's assessment of a likely Iranian strike because it is more likely intended to achieve informational effects rather than to specify the precise targets to be struck. Iran’s messaging does align with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel, however. The operation could involve Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducting coordinated strikes on Israel at the same time as Iranian forces. Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi militias have all expressed an intent to attack Israel. CTP-ISW has observed unconfirmed reports that additional groups, such as Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Palestinian fighters in the West Bank may participate in an Iranian-led attack.

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Retaliation: Iranian armed forces-run Defa Press published a list of potential civilian and military targets in Israel on August 5, which likely aims to decrease Israel’s ability to effectively defend against an Iranian attack by causing Israel to air- and missile-defense assets and creating panic among civilians. These targets are not all proportionate with Haniyeh's killing, and publishing some of the targets likely seeks to create informational and economic effects instead of identifying precise targets. Other targets would be significant escalations and seem likely to cause civilian causalities, which Iran would likely calculate is counter-productive to efforts to establish deterrence with Israel.



• West Bank: The IDF has deployed additional forces near Israeli communities adjacent to Tulkarm after receiving a credible threat that Hamas and other Palestinian militias may conduct an October 7-like infiltration operation into Israel from the West Bank.

• Russia and Iran: Iran and Russia are continuing to promote increased cooperation ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel. Russian officials likely seek to coordinate with Iranian officials ahead of the strike given the implications an Iranian strike launched in part from Lebanon and Syria could have for Russian forces in Syria.

• Jordan and Iran: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi in Tehran on August 4.

• Iraq: An Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province injured multiple US servicemembers.

• Iranian Cabinet Formation: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced three new appointments in his government on August 4. These appointments included a former Rouhani economic adviser, a former Central Bank deputy governor during the Ahmadinejad administration, and a former Tabriz MP and Tabriz City Council chairman who has worked previously with Pezeshkian.

• Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force struck and killed the commander of Hamas’ Sheikh Radwan Battalion in Sheikh Radwan, southern Gaza City, on August 4.

Click here to read the full update.

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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