Katherine Wells, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, Siddhant Kishore, Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

US and Israeli officials have warned that Iran will likely conduct a large-scale, coordinated attack targeting Israel in the days ahead. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby expressed concern on August 12 about the “increasing probability that Iran and its proxies will attack in the coming days.” Israel similarly assesses that Iran will likely attack Israel directly “within days,” according to unspecified sources speaking to Axios. These warnings are consistent with Western intelligence sources previously assessing that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah may attack Israel on the Jewish holiday Tisha B’Av on August 12-13.

The unspecified sources separately told Axios that Israel expects Lebanese Hezbollah to attack first followed by a direct Iranian attack. Axios similarly reported on August 5 that the United States expects Iran and its Axis of Resistance to conduct “two waves” of attacks on Israel, citing unspecified US officials. The officials added that the Iran-Hezbollah attack will likely be “bigger” than the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel in April 2024 and that Iran and Hezbollah might target military sites near civilian areas. These statements are all consistent with CTP-ISW's ongoing assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.

Key Takeaways:

• Israel: US and Israeli officials have warned that Iran will likely conduct a large-scale, coordinated attack targeting Israel in the days ahead. These statements are all consistent with CTP-ISW's ongoing assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.

• Russia: Iran is expected to imminently deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine. Western and Ukrainian sources have previously warned that Iran may be preparing to provide Russia with short-range ballistic systems, including multiple systems with maximum ranges and payloads significantly greater than the limits imposed upon Russia under its Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) obligations.

• Iran: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian submitted 19 cabinet minister nominations to Parliament. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister-designate Abbas Araghchi described his foreign policy agenda during a meeting with the Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee.

• Iraq: The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee—a coordinating body for Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—threatened to attack US forces if the United States conducts attacks within Iraq or uses Iraqi airspace to attack Iran.

• Gaza Strip: Hamas has refused to participate in ceasefire-hostage negotiations in Qatar scheduled for August 15.

Click here to read the full update.

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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