Iran is likely trying to expand divisions within Israel and between Israel and the United States ahead of a possible Iranian drone and missile attack. Three anonymous senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters on August 13 claimed that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah would refrain from attacking Israel if it reached a ceasefire-hostage agreement with Hamas. One of the senior Iranian officials claimed that Iran and Hezbollah would attack Israel if ceasefire-hostage talks fail or if Israel delays negotiations.
These comments from senior Iranian officials come as Hamas has expanded its negotiating demands, making an agreement harder to reach. Hamas has refused to participate in the next round of negotiations scheduled for August 15 on the grounds that Israel is “deceiving and evading. . . to prolong the war and even expand it at the regional level.” Hamas asked international mediators on August 11 to “ oblige” Israel to accept “a plan to implement” a previous ceasefire proposal that Hamas submitted in July 2024—instead of conducting further negotiations. This Hamas ceasefire proposal reportedly compromised on one of Hamas’ maximalist demands by allowing a partial IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip during the first phase of a three-phase ceasefire agreement. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar separately told Arab mediators on August 12 that Israel must stop military operations in the Gaza Strip if “[Israel] wants Hamas to participate” in further negotiations. Sinwar has effectively required Israel to commit to a unilateral ceasefire before Hamas will engage in actual ceasefire discussions.
Iran likely calculates that conditioning its attack on Israel on whether Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire-hostage deal forces Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to choose between two bad options. Iran could calculate that, if Netanyahu accepts the ceasefire proposal, then he could lose the support of his political coalition. Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir have previously threatened to leave Netanyahu’s coalition if a ceasefire is reached before Hamas is destroyed. Iran may also calculate that, if Netanyahu were to reject Hamas’ proposal, then Netanyahu would be blamed by Israeli society and allies for the ensuing Iranian-led attack on Israel. Either course of action would serve the Iranian objectives of expanding divisions within Israel and isolating Israel from its allies, particularly the United States. Iran may miscalculate the likely responses in Israel and the United States to a successful Iranian strike that causes significant damage or loss of life.
The anonymous Iranian officials who spoke to Reuters likely meant to achieve the informational effect described above rather than to provide accurate information about the circumstances in which Iran would attack Israel. Senior Iranian officials and Iranian armed forces leaders speaking by name on the record have continued to indicate that they will attack Israel regardless of whether a ceasefire is reached in the Gaza Strip. That the Iranian regime is not suggesting the possibility of refraining from a strike in return for a ceasefire in its own domestic information space reinforces CTP-ISW's assessment that the Iranian officials spoke to Reuters to generate informational effects in the West. It is unclear, moreover, whether the Iranian officials speaking to Reuters have any role in the Iranian military chain of command. The Iranian president and his government, for context, has no control over the Iranian armed forces.
The United States has deployed the USS Laboon guided-missile destroyer to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, according to an anonymous US defense official. The official said that the USS Laboon arrived in the eastern Mediterranean from the Red Sea as part of US force posture changes ahead of Iran’s and Iranian-backed groups’ expected attack on Israel. The US Department of Defense previously announced on August 2 that it would deploy air- and sea-based cruise missile defenses, ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers, and additional fighter jets to the Middle East. The United States recently deployed F-22 Raptors and the USS Georgia guided-missile submarine to the region and ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to accelerate its transit to the region.
The Artesh—the conventional Iranian military—appears to be preparing for a possible Iranian attack on Israel. Artesh Air Force Commander Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi visited the Shahid Nojeh Airbase in Hamedan Province on August 13. Vahedi stressed that the Artesh Air Force is ready for “any dangerous task” during his visit. The visit comes as Iran issued on August 11 a notice to airmen that covers the Shahid Nojeh Airbase until August 14. The Artesh Navy has separately conducted a military exercise in the Caspian Sea near the port city of Astara. This flurry of Artesh activity could be part of preparations to defend against an Israeli retaliation if Iran launches another large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel.
Key Takeaways: - Israel: Iran is likely trying to expand divisions within Israel and between Israel and the United States ahead of a possible Iranian drone and missile attack.
- Iran: The Artesh—the conventional Iranian military—appears to be preparing for a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
- West Bank: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
- Russia: Iran showcased its drone and missile technologies, including the new Mohajer-10 drone, at a Russian military exhibition in Moscow.
- ISIS: The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) reportedly seized ground east of al Tanf along the Iraq-Syria border.
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