Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Kathryn Tyson, Kelly Campa, Ria Reddy, Carolyn Moorman, Katherine Wells, Siddhant Kishore, and Brian Carter



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Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that he still believes Iran must respond to Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders in recent weeks, despite back-channel threats from the United States emphasizing that Israel would respond forcefully to an attack that kills Israeli civilians or causes significant damage. Khamenei said on August 14 at a meeting with the National Congress of Martyrs of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province that “according to [his interpretation of] the Quran” any non-tactical retreat, whether in military, political or economic affairs, leads to the wrath of God. Khamenei also said that the United States and Israel are waging “psychological warfare” by exaggerating their ability to harm Iran in response to an Iranian strike. This argument suggests that US and Israeli attempts to discourage a direct strike on Israel have failed to convince the supreme leader and his inner circle. Back-channel messages from the United States have emphasized to both Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah that Israel would respond forcefully to an attack that kills Israeli civilians or causes significant damage.

These most recent statements are consistent with Khamenei’s belief that Iran has a “duty” to respond to Israel’s targeted killing of Haniyeh on July 31. Khamenei will have the final say on how and when Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel is conducted, and his repeated comments highlighting the necessity of a retaliation suggests that the Iranian regime will likely mount a retaliatory strike on Israel. Khamenei’s statements do not, however, indicate his chosen form of response and so his statements do not independently verify CTP-ISW’s running assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel.

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Retaliation: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that he still believes Iran must respond to Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders in recent weeks, despite back-channel threats from the United States emphasizing that Israel would respond forcefully to an attack that kills Israeli civilians or causes significant damage.

• Gaza Ceasefire Talks: Official Hamas statements suggest that a ceasefire during the August 15 Doha talks is unlikely. Unspecified Hamas officials have suggested that Hamas could attend the talks, however. US President Biden “expect[s]” that a successful ceasefire in the Gaza Strip achieved in the next few days would make Iranian leaders hold off on a retaliatory strike targeting Israel. CTP-ISW assesses that Iran is likely trying to expand divisions within Israel and between Israel and the United States ahead of a possible Iranian drone and missile attack by circulating a rumor that it would “hold back” if there is a Gaza ceasefire.

• Iranian Cabinet Formation: The Iranian Parliament will vote to approve four ministerial nominees during the week of August 18 who articulated policies largely consistent with the regime’s current foreign policy. The Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission approved the qualifications and plans of four cabinet minister nominees on August 14.

• West Bank: Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on August 12 that Iran is cooperating with Hamas in Lebanon to smuggle weapons and funds into Jordan to destabilize the Jordanian government. Iran’s smuggling attempts through Jordan are part of a likely Iranian effort to increase its influence in the West Bank.

• Iraq and Syria: Unspecified Iranian backed militia launched unspecified projectiles targeting US forces at Conoco Mission Support Site in Deir ez Zor Province on August 13. The projectiles landed near the base and no damage or injuries were reported, according to two unnamed US officials cited by Reuters.

• Lebanon: Israeli media reported that the IDF has deployed Israeli security forces along the northern border to protect against October 7-like attacks from Lebanon. Maariv reported that the IDF pre-positioned this force in northern Israel after learning lessons from October 7.

Click here to read the full update.

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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