Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

NEW | Click here to read the major new report from Drs. Kimberly and Frederick W. Kagan, "Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War."

Hamas has rejected optimism from US and international mediators that a ceasefire-hostage agreement is close to being reached. Hamas stated that there has been no progress on ceasefire-hostage talks and accused the United States of selling a “false positive atmosphere.” Hamas restated its demand on August 16 that negotiations return to the Hamas’ July 2024 proposal after talks in Doha concluded. Hamas listed its demands for a full Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, a “real [hostage-prisoner exchange] deal,” and humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip. Unspecified sources “familiar with the matter” claimed that Hamas suggested that it is willing to speak with mediators if “significant progress” was made during the talks in Doha on August 15 and 16. It is unclear whether the ceasefire talks met this threshold. Israeli mediators are “cautiously optimistic” that ceasefire negotiations will advance. Israel, however, insists that Israeli forces retain control over the Philadelphi Corridor, which is incompatible with Hamas’ demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Lower-level talks will continue into next week to resolve outstanding demands between Israel and Hamas ahead of a second round of talks in Cairo, Egypt.

The United States and foreign mediators are maintaining pressure on Iran to delay an attack targeting Israel by threatening Iran and highlighting reported ceasefire progress. Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani highlighted progress in ceasefire-hostage negotiations during phone calls with acting Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani following talks in Doha on August 15 and 16. Al Thani warned Bagheri Kani of unspecified consequences if Iran attacked Israel during negotiations in retaliation for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. An unspecified US official speaking to reporters stated that Iran could face “cataclysmic” consequences if it derailed negotiations by conducting a retaliatory strike on Israel. US, Israeli, and Iranian officials cited by the New York Times on August 16 said that Iran is expected to delay its retaliatory strike during ceasefire negotiations.US President Joe Biden reportedly views the deal as the “key. . . to preventing a regional war,” and he said that he “expects” that Iranian leaders will delay or indefinitely postpone a strike if a ceasefire agreement is reached. It remains unclear if “hold off” means that Iranian leaders would decline to mount any retaliatory strike on Israel or just that Iran would delay its strike.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Ceasefire-Hostage Negotiations: Hamas has rejected optimism from US and international mediators that a ceasefire-hostage agreement is close to being reached.

• Iranian Retaliation: The United States and foreign mediators are maintaining pressure on Iran to delay an attack targeting Israel by threatening Iran and highlighting reported ceasefire progress.

• Gaza: The IDF 98th Division expanded its clearing operation in Khan Younis on August 17. Israeli forces located and destroyed Hamas infrastructure and engaged Palestinian fighters.

• Lebanon: Hezbollah launched at least 55 rockets into northern Israel on August 17 in retaliation for an IDF strike in Nabatieh that killed 10 civilians.

• West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 16.

• Yemen: US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed a Houthi naval attack drone in the Red Sea on August 16. 

Click here to read the full update.

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

Follow ISW on social media:

Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

Visit our website | Job & Internship Opportunities

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.

ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.