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[ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 8월 25일

by Summa posted Aug 26, 2024
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Key Takeaways

주요 요점:

  • 러시아 군사 블로거들은 러시아군이 8월 25일 해당 지역에서 우크라이나의 지속적인 공격이 보고되는 가운데 쿠르스크 주에서 최근 상실한 진지를 탈환했다고 주장했습니다.
  • 러시아 군은 우크라이나 전선의 우선 순위가 낮은 구역에서 쿠르스크 주 전선으로 계속 병력을 재배치할 가능성이 큽니다.
  • 프랑스 당국은 8월 24일 텔레그램 창립자 파벨 두로프를 체포하여 러시아의 극우 군사 블로거들 사이에서 우크라이나 전쟁에 대한 자유로운 보도 능력에 대한 우려를 불러일으켰습니다. 그러나 ISW는 두로프의 체포가 단기적으로 텔레그램 운영에 영향을 미칠 것이라는 직접적인 증거를 관찰하지 못했습니다.
  • 러시아 군사 블로거들은 두로프의 체포에 대응하여 러시아 군인들이 우크라이나에서 작전을 조직하기 위해 텔레그램을 포함한 임시 통신에 의존하는 방식에 초점을 맞추고 러시아 군 사령부에 적절한 공식 통신 시스템을 구축할 것을 촉구했습니다.
  • 러시아군은 최근 토레츠크 근처와 도네츠크 시 남서쪽에서 진격했습니다.
--- **분류**: 군사 **관련된 주요국가**: 러시아, 우크라이나, 프랑스 **향후 전망**: 러시아군은 쿠르스크 주에서 우크라이나군에 대한 공세를 계속할 것으로 예상되며, 우크라이나군은 러시아군의 공세를 저지하기 위해 계속 저항할 것으로 예상됩니다. 프랑스 당국은 두로프의 체포 이후 텔레그램에 대한 규제를 강화할 수 있으며, 이는 러시아 군사 블로거들의 우크라이나 전쟁 보도에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Riley Bailey,

Davit Gasparyan, and George Barros


August 25, 2024, 5:35pm ET 

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.


NEW | Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast.

Click here to read the major new report from Drs. Kimberly and Frederick W. Kagan, "Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War."

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces recently regained lost positions in Kursk Oblast amid reports of continued Ukrainian attacks in the area on August 25. A Russian milblogger claimed on August 25 that Russian forces regained lost positions in Komarovka (southwest of Korenevo) and are repelling small Ukrainian attacks in the area. Several Russian milbloggers claimed on August 25 that Russian forces recaptured Olgovka and Kremyanoye (both east of Korenevo) and that Russian forces are advancing west of Kremyanoye. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces still control Kremyanoye, however. Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces encircled elements of the Russian 18th Motorized Rifle Division (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) in Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha) and that elements of either the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF]) or 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment (Territorial Troops) broke through the Ukrainian encirclement and allowed the personnel of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division to withdraw. Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting continues within Malaya Loknya, although fighting in the settlement does not preclude Ukrainian forces from operating deeper into Kursk Oblast in the area. Russian forces likely continue to operate within select areas of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast as Ukrainian forces likely do not control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of claims about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast. Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov similarly claimed on August 25 that elements of the Russian 14th Motorized Rifle Battalion of the Akhmat-Chechnya Regiment under the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) successfully evacuated 51 conscripts from combat near Ulanok (southeast of Sudzha). Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacking near Russkoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Martynovka (all northeast of Sudzha). A Russian milblogger claimed on August 24 that Russian forces retook and cleared Spalnoye (southeast of Sudzha), following similar claims from August 23 that Russian forces retook the settlement. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Borki and Spalnoye on August 25. Russian opposition outlets reported that conscripts of the Russian 217th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Division) deployed from Ivanovo City - where the regiment's and division's garrison is located - to Kursk Oblast.


The Russian military likely continues to redeploy forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. Commanders of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD], 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade, 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division), and 51st VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division) briefed Russian President Vladimir Putin on combat missions in Russian territories bordering Ukraine (likely referring to Kursk Oblast) on August 24. Earlier in the day, Putin met with Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov and Chief of the General Staff's Main Operations Directorate Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy to discuss the Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. ISW has observed elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, and 11th VDV Brigade fighting in Kursk Oblast and has observed evidence that the Russian military command recently redeployed elements of the 56th VDV Regiment from the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast to Kursk Oblast. ISW has not yet observed reports of elements of the 51st VDV Regiment fighting in Kursk Oblast, but the fact that the 51st VDV Regiment commander briefed Putin alongside the commanders of other units that have recently redeployed elements to Kursk Oblast suggests that the elements of the 51st VDV Regiment have also likely redeployed to the area. Elements of the 51st VDV Regiment have been fighting in the Siversk direction in recent months alongside other units of the 106th VDV Division. Russia appears to have redeployed elements of the 810th and 155th naval infantry brigades from the frontline in northern Kharkiv Oblast and likely redeployed elements of the 11th VDV Brigade from the wider Chasiv Yar area. The Russian military command is resisting operational pressures to redeploy forces away from its high priority offensive effort to seize Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and will likely continue to draw forces from lower priority offensive operations elsewhere throughout the theater to defend in Kursk Oblast.

Key Takeaways:


  • Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces recently regained lost positions in Kursk Oblast amid reports of continued Ukrainian attacks in the area on August 25.



  • The Russian military likely continues to redeploy forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast.


  • French authorities arrested Telegram founder Pavel Durov on August 24, prompting concern among Russian ultranationalist milbloggers about their ability to report freely on the war in Ukraine. ISW has not observed any direct evidence indicating that Durov's arrest will affect Telegram operations in the near term, however.


  • Russian milbloggers reacted to Durov's arrest by focusing on how Russian soldiers rely on ad-hoc communications, including Telegram, for organizing operations in Ukraine and called on the Russian military command to establish an adequate official communication system.


  • Russian forces recently advanced near and within Toretsk and southwest of Donetsk City.


Click here to read the full assessment.

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.



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