Alexandra Braverman, Annika Ganzeveld, Katherine Wells, Siddhant Kishore, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, and Nicholas Carl



Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has advanced into southern Lebanon along at least two axes. Geolocated imagery shows Israeli forces separately approaching Odaisseh and Maround al Ras. The IDF 36^th and 98^th divisions participated in these advances and both have elements that fought in the Gaza Strip. The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed that Israeli forces went around 1,300 feet into Lebanon around Odaisseh and Khirbet Yaroun and that the Israeli forces retrograded after a ”short period.” This activity comes after the IDF began the initial phase of its ground operation into southern Lebanon on October 1. This effort—paired with the IDF air campaign—is meant to degrade Lebanese Hezbollah capabilities and destroy much of the military infrastructure that Hezbollah has built in southern Lebanon in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. These military effects are meant, in turn, to achieve the stated Israeli war aim of safely returning displaced civilians to their homes in northern Israel. Thousands of Israeli civilians have fled their homes, as Hezbollah has conducted almost daily attacks into northern Israel since October 2023.

Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed that it engaged Israeli forces in Odaisseh and Maround al Ras in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah also claimed that it detonated improvised explosive devices (IED) targeting Israeli forces near Kfar Kila and Yaroun. The IDF reported that it killed Hezbollah fighters and destroyed military infrastructure in unspecified locations. The IDF also reported that Hezbollah killed eight Israeli soldiers in four separate engagements.

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson called on civilians to evacuate immediately from 24 towns in southern Lebanon. The spokesperson asked residents to travel north of Awali River, which is 30 miles north of Litani River. The spokesperson separately asked residents to avoid traveling by vehicle from north of Litani River to anywhere south of it.

The IDF continued its air campaign targeting Hezbollah capabilities, infrastructure, and leadership. The IDF struck Hezbollah militants as well as observation posts and weapons depots, among other military infrastructure sites, across Lebanon. The IDF reported that it has struck Hezbollah munitions production sites around Beirut in recent days. The IDF also reported that it has destroyed over 150 Hezbollah infrastructure sites in airstrikes over an unspecified period of time

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: The IDF has advanced into southern Lebanon along two axes. Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced, killing at least eight Israeli soldiers. The IDF called on civilians across southern Lebanon to evacuate immediately and move northward.

Iran: The recent Iranian missile attack on Israel appears to have been more effective at penetrating Israeli air defenses than the Iranian drone-missile attack in April 2024. This may indicate that Iran is learning how to optimize its attacks against Western and Israeli defenses.

Iran: Israel will reportedly conduct a “significant retaliation” against Iran in the coming days. Iranian military leaders threatened that they would respond by conducting an even greater attack on Israel.

Iran: Reuters reported on how deeply Israel has infiltrated the Iranian security establishment and Hezbollah. Israeli operations, including the killing of senior Axis of Resistance officials, has stoked mistrust and paranoia among Iranian and Hezbollah leaders.

Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened to attack US forces if the United States supports an Israeli retaliation against Iran. Militia officials also criticized Jordan for purportedly helping Israel intercept Iranian ballistic missiles.

Iranian internal security: There has been a significant uptick in anti-regime militancy in southeastern Iran in recent days. This coincides with the two-year anniversary of “Blood Friday,” when Iranian security forces brutally suppressed protesters in southeastern Iran.

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ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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