Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn Moorman, Ben Rezaei, Andie Parry, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl



Information Cutoff: October 4, 2024, 2:00 pm ET

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike on an underground bunker in Beirut on October 3. The airstrike targeted a meeting of senior Hezbollah officials, including the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah, Safi ed Din. Neither the IDF nor Hezbollah have provided any information on the outcome of the strike. Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem said on October 1 that Hezbollah will choose a new leader as soon as possible and according to the approved mechanisms. The chief of Hezbollah intelligence may have also died in the airstrike.

The IDF continued its campaign to destroy Hezbollah military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Geolocated imagery indicates that the IDF has continued to advance into Yaroun around the western axis of advance. The IDF 188th Armored Brigade (36th Division) raided Hezbollah positions in the surrounding area and seized dozens of weapons, including anti-tank guided missiles, explosive materials, rockets, and rocket launchers. The IDF has reportedly discovered significantly more Hezbollah military infrastructure than it expected during the raids. Senior Israeli officials said that the clearing of the Lebanese towns is meant to eliminate the threat that Hezbollah ground forces pose to civilians in northern Israel. An anonymous Israeli official said that the area will no longer be “springboard villages from which the Galilee can be raided,” referring to Hezbollah‘s long-term plan of launching ground attacks into Israel. An Israeli military correspondent reported that the IDF progress in southern Lebanon has been ”relatively slow” due to the hilly and rough terrain.

The IDF has continued targeting tactical-level Hezbollah commanders in southern Lebanon, which may be diminishing the combat effectiveness of some Hezbollah units. The IDF stated that it has killed 20 Hezbollah field commanders in southern Lebanon since September 30. These commanders have included five brigade-level commanders, ten company commanders, and six platoon commanders, particularly around the western axis of advance. Israeli sources reported that Hezbollah units in southern Lebanon remain organized but that the IDF has observed ”signs of erosion” in these units due to the killings of field commanders. Hezbollah forces remain structured as a conventional fighting force and should in principle be able to overcome any temporary disruption caused by the loss of commanders. CTP-ISW will continue to assess Hezbollah combat effectiveness in the days and weeks ahead.

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting a meeting of senior Lebanese Hezbollah officials in an underground bunker in Beirut. Among the meeting participants was the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safi ed Din.

Lebanon: The IDF continued its ground and air campaign targeting Lebanese Hezbollah capabilities, command-and-control, and infrastructure. The IDF has targeted tactical-level Hezbollah commanders, which may be reducing the combat effectiveness of some Hezbollah units.

Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq was likely responsible for a drone strike that killed two IDF soldiers in the Golan Heights. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has not claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of this writing.

Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei led Friday prayers in Tehran for the first time since January 2020. Khamenei used the speech to signal his steadfastness in the war against Israel to domestic and international audiences.

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ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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