Kelly Campa, Andie Parry, Carolyn Moorman, Annika Ganzeveld, Siddhant Kishore, Ben Rezaei, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, and Nicholas Carl

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Israeli political leaders indicated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah—in an airstrike on Beirut on October 4. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement on October 8 that Israel killed “Nasrallah himself, and Nasrallah’s replacement, and the replacement of his replacement,” which Israeli media has framed as confirmation of the killing of Safi ed Din. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant similarly said on October 8 that the IDF probably killed Safi ed Din. IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, on the other hand, said that the IDF is still investigating the results of the airstrike targeting Safi ed Din. Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem released a video statement on October 8 in which he said that Hezbollah would select a new leader based on its approving mechanisms, noting that the war made the succession to Nasrallah ”difficult and compromised.” Qassem may be among the candidates considered to replace Nasrallah given that he has formal seniority in the organization and has appeared as the public face of the group in these difficult circumstances.

Netanyahu in his own video statement addressed the Lebanese people directly, saying that Hezbollah is “weaker today than it has been for many years.” Netanyahu asked the Lebanese people to “take back [their] country” from Hezbollah. Gallant similarly noted that Hezbollah is “without a leader” and that Israel should ”take advantage” of this situation in order to safely return displaced civilians to their homes in northern Israel.

Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Qassem separately in his video statement praised Hezbollah’s resilience and vowed to continue attacks into Israel. Qassem described the Israeli killing of Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders as a ”painful blow” but said that new leaders have capably filled these vacant positions. Qassem also observed that numerous Israeli cities are within the range of many Hezbollah weapons systems and said that Hezbollah would ”expand the ranges” of its attacks. Qassem separately tried to build domestic Lebanese support for Hezbollah by asserting that Hezbollah began attacking Israel in October 2023 to support the Gaza Strip and to “defend Lebanon and its people.” 

Qassem also expressed Hezbollah supports for Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Qassem did not condition Hezbollah support for a ceasefire on first securing a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as Nasrallah consistently did. Qassem refrained from elaborating on what a ceasefire in Lebanon would involve. Berri, who is a Hezbollah political ally, has met recently with Arab, Iranian, and Western officials to discuss a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. A ceasefire would require Hezbollah to at least cease its near constant attacks that Qassem vowed to continue and expand in northern Israel.

Key Takeaways:

• Lebanon: Israeli political leaders indicated that the IDF killed Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah—in an airstrike on Beirut.

• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem lauded the resilience of Hezbollah and vowed to continue and even expand attacks into northern Israel.

• Lebanon: The IDF deployed a fourth division—the 146^th Reservist Division—to southwestern Lebanon as part of its expansion of ground operations against Lebanese Hezbollah.

• Iran: US CIA Director William Burns said that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in around a week but does not appear to have yet made the decision to do so.

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ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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