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[ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 11월 23일

by Summa posted Nov 24, 2024
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```html Key Takeaways: 러시아 국방부, 남부군구 사령관 교체 은폐 시도

주요 요점:

  • 러시아 국방부는 최근 남부군구 사령관 게나디 아나슈킨 대령을 경질한 사실을 은폐하려 했을 가능성이 큽니다. 아나슈킨의 부하들이 상관에게 허위 전선 진행 보고서를 제출했다는 비난이 러시아 정보 공간에 널리 퍼진 후에 이런 조치를 취한 것으로 보입니다.
  • 우크라이나 군 당국은 하르키우주에 북한 인력이 있다는 주장을 부인했습니다. 북한 "기술 고문"이 점령된 마리우폴에서 활동하고 있다는 새로운 미확인 보고서가 나온 가운데 나온 주장입니다.
  • 러시아군은 최근 쿠르스크주와 벨리카 노보실카 근처에서 진격했습니다.
  • 크렘린 대변인 드미트리 페스코프는 러시아 당국이 암호 동원 노력에 계속 의존함에 따라 러시아가 현재 또 다른 부분적 비자발적 예비군 소집을 실시할 필요가 없다고 밝혔습니다.

분류: 군사, 정치 관련 국가: 러시아, 우크라이나, 북한 향후 전망: 러시아는 앞으로도 우크라이나에서 군사 작전을 계속할 것으로 예상되며, 우크라이나는 계속해서 저항할 것으로 보입니다. 북한은 러시아에 군사 지원을 제공할 가능성이 있으며, 이는 우크라이나 전쟁의 양상을 더욱 복잡하게 만들 수 있습니다.
```

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

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Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, William Runkel, and George Barros


November 23, 2024, 5:35pm ET

Click here to view our Russia-Ukraine interactive maps.


Click here to view our special reports since 2024.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely attempted to cover up the recent removal of the acting commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Colonel General Gennady Anashkin following widespread accusations within the Russian information space that Anashkin's subordinates submitted false frontline progress reports to superiors. Russian milbloggers widely claimed on November 23 that the Russian military command removed Anashkin, the acting commander of the SMD and commander of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces, after Russian commanders in the Siversk direction in his area of responsibility submitted incorrect reports about Russian battlefield advances to their superiors. Russian state outlet RBK reported that a source in the Russian MoD acknowledged Anashkin's dismissal but claimed that it was due to a "planned rotation" and praised Anashkin's military achievements. Russian milbloggers widely applauded Anashkin's removal, claiming that this may lead to improvements in how Russian forces plan and conduct operations and may increase the value Russian commanders place on Russian soldiers' lives at the front.One milblogger claimed that Anashkin's removal shows that Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov is starting to get involved in "military management" and not just administrative and economic reforms within the MoD. Russian milbloggers recently claimed that Russian authorities arrested the commander of the 3rd Combined Arms Army (CAA), the 3rd CAA's chief of staff, and the commander of the 3rd CAA's 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade for submitting incorrect reports about Russian advances in the Siversk direction, and Russian milbloggers have widely complained in recent weeks about the pervasive Russian military culture of exaggerating battlefield successes near Siversk. The Russian MoD falsely claimed that Russian forces in the Siversk direction seized Bilhorivka on May 20 and Serebryanka in late October 2024, for example, despite Russian milblogger criticisms of these claims since.


Ukrainian military officials denied claims of North Korean personnel's presence in Kharkiv Oblast amid new unconfirmed reports that North Korean "technical advisers" are operating in occupied Mariupol. CNN, citing an anonymous Ukrainian security source reported on November 22 that North Korean technical advisers have arrived in Russian-occupied Mariupol, are performing support operations, and are detached from the Russian military units despite wearing Russian military uniforms. Ukrainian military officials also reportedly told CNN that radio intercepts suggest that North Korean troops are operating in Kharkiv Oblast and that North Korean troops are waiting for worsening weather conditions to conduct assault operations. The Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces denied reports of the presence of North Korean personnel in Kharkiv Oblast and stated that the spokesperson cited in the CNN report is not an official Kharkiv Group of Forces spokesperson and commented on the situation outside of their responsibilities. Reuters reported on November 23 that a large number of the 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast are still finishing military training.


Key Takeaways:


  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely attempted to cover up the recent removal of the acting commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Colonel General Gennady Anashkin following widespread accusations within the Russian information space that Anashkin's subordinates submitted false frontline progress reports to superiors.


  • Ukrainian military officials denied claims of North Korean personnel's presence in Kharkiv Oblast amid new unconfirmed reports that North Korean "technical advisers" are operating in occupied Mariupol.


  • Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Velyka Novosilka.


  • Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia does not currently need to conduct another partial involuntary reserve callup as Russian authorities continue leaning into crypto-mobilization efforts.


Click Here to Read the Full Report

Interactive Map of Hundreds of Known Russian Military Objects in Range of ATACMS

Click here to read the major report from Drs. Kimberly and Frederick W. Kagan, "Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War."

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