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[ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 12월 4일

by Summa posted Dec 05, 2024
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```html Key Takeaways

주요 요점:

  • 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴과 다른 고위 크렘린 관리들이 우크라이나 어린이들을 러시아로 강제 이주시키고 "재교육"하는 데 개인적으로 연루되었다는 증거가 계속 증가하고 있습니다.
  • 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴은 높은 이자율과 인플레이션 퇴치 노력이 크렘린이 장기적으로 경제 안정에 대해 우려하고 있음을 시사하는 가운데 러시아 경제의 안정과 성장을 계속 주장하고 있습니다.
  • 아르메니아 총리 니콜 파시냔은 12월 4일 아르메니아가 러시아 주도 집단 안보 조약 기구(CSTO)와의 관계에서 사실상 "돌이킬 수 없는 지점"에 도달했다고 발표했습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 최근 토레츠크와 벨리카 노보실카 근처에서 잃었던 지역을 되찾았습니다. 러시아군은 최근 토레츠크, 포크로브스크, 부흘레다르, 벨리카 노보실카, 쿠르스크 주 근처의 차시프 야르에서 진격했습니다.
  • 크렘린은 "영웅의 시간" 프로그램을 계속 사용하여 우크라이나 전쟁 참전 용사들을 러시아 정부와 주요 국영 기업의 리더 자리에 배치하고 있습니다.

분류: 국제정치, 군사 관련된 주요국가: 러시아, 우크라이나, 아르메니아 향후 전망: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 계속될 것으로 예상되며, 러시아 경제는 인플레이션과 높은 이자율로 어려움을 겪을 것으로 예상됩니다. 아르메니아는 러시아와의 관계에서 더욱 독립적인 입장을 취할 것으로 예상됩니다.
```

[원문]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Kateryna Stepanenko


December 4, 2024, 6:30pm ET

Click here to view our Russia-Ukraine interactive maps.


Click here to view our special reports since 2024.

Mounting evidence continues to personally implicate Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials in the forced deportation and "re-education" of Ukrainian children in Russia. The US Department of State and Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab published a report on December 3 detailing the role of Putin, Kremlin Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova, members of Russia's ruling United Russia party, Russia's Ministry of Education, and occupation officials in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in at least 314 confirmed cases of child deportation from occupied Ukraine. The report states that Putin maintains primary control over and is the main decision-maker for Russia's deportation program and that Lvova-Belova acts as Putin's executive officer who oversees the implementation of the program. The report notes that Russian authorities have used military transport aircraft and aircraft under Putin's personal control to deport children from occupied Ukraine to intermediary holding facilities in Russia. The report states that Russian and occupation authorities have primarily deported to Russia children whom Russian authorities claim to be orphans or children without parental care and that Russian authorities have placed most of the children in Russian foster or adoptive families. The report assesses that it is highly likely that most, if not all, deported Ukrainian children have been naturalized as Russian citizens and that Russian authorities force the children to participate in a patriotic re-education program intended to Russify, militarize, and indoctrinate them into Russian cultural and historical narratives and forcibly separate them from their Ukrainian heritage. The report notes that the true number of Ukrainian children that Russia has forcibly deported to Russia remains unclear and that the number is significantly higher than the 314 children identified in the report. ISW has reported extensively on Russia's crimes in occupied Ukraine, including the forced deportation of Ukrainian youth to Russia. The Geneva Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide defines "forcibly transferring children of a group to another group" as an act constituting genocide.


Key Takeaways:


  • Mounting evidence continues to personally implicate Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials in the forced deportation and "re-education" of Ukrainian children in Russia.


  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to posture Russian economic stability and growth while high interest rates and efforts to combat inflation suggest that the Kremlin is worried about economic stability in the long-term.



  • Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on December 4 that Armenia has effectively reached "the point of no return" in its ties with the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).


  • Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Toretsk and near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces recently advanced in Chasiv Yar, near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.


  • The Kremlin continues to use its "Time of Heroes" program to place veterans of the war in Ukraine in leadership positions within the Russian government and major state companies.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.



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