Johanna Moore, Ben Rezaei, Alexandra Braverman, Siddhant Kishore, Anthony Carrillo, Buckley DeJardin, and Brian Carter

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Click here to view ISW–CTP's Gaza Control-of-Terrain map and here for our interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria.

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The Bashar al Assad regime faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces. Various Syrian groups opposed to Assad, including local opposition in southwestern Syria, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Fateh Mubin Operations Room, have each rapidly seized territory across Syria in the past 24 hours as Assad regime forces have collapsed. Assad’s backers do not appear willing to bolster the Syrian Arab Army by rapidly deploying additional forces. One source “close to the Kremlin,” for example, told Bloomberg that unless Assad’s forces manage to form a defensive line—a scenario that is becoming increasingly less likely as more and more Syrian regime units break—Russia will not “save” Assad.

The Axis of Resistance’s support to the Assad regime will almost certainly fail to stop the opposition offensive at this time unless ground forces are deployed rapidly and in larger numbers. Iran reportedly plans to send missiles and drones to Syria, and both Iran and Hezbollah will reportedly provide military advisers. Hezbollah sent a “small number” of “advisers” to Syria on December 5 and Hezbollah has already deployed Hezbollah advisers to Homs. The small number of advisers is unlikely to reverse the country-wide collapse of Syrian forces, and missiles and drones cannot hold or take ground on their own. Hezbollah is unlikely to deploy the larger number of fighters required for Assad to regain territory, given Hezbollah's requirements in Lebanon after the group suffered heavy losses during the Israeli ground campaign in Lebanon.

Key Takeaways:

• State of the Syrian Regime: The Bashar al Assad regime faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces. One source “close to the Kremlin,” for example, told Bloomberg that unless Assad’s forces manage to form a defensive line—a scenario that is becoming increasingly less likely as more and more Syrian regime units break—Russia will not “save” Assad.

• Support to Assad: The Axis of Resistance’s support to the Assad regime will almost certainly fail to stop the opposition offensive at this time unless ground forces are deployed rapidly and in larger numbers.

• Turkish Response: Turkey appears equally unwilling to broker a settlement short of Assad’s removal as HTS seeks to overthrow Assad. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani said that his forces seek to replace the Assad regime in Damascus with a government and a “council chosen by the people.”

• Homs City Front: Syrian opposition forces led by HTS are now on the outskirts of Homs City after seizing Hama City on December 5.

• Deir ez Zor Front: The SDF seized key areas in regime-held Deir ez Zor and Raqqa provinces on December 6, making it more difficult for Iran to move forces to Assad or to supply Iranian-backed forces in Syria.

• Daraa Front: Local opposition groups in southwestern Syria have rapidly seized towns across Daraa Province and Suwayda Province, south of Damascus.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of the ongoing Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels. 

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