Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa,

Alexandra Braverman, Siddhant Kishore, Ben Rezaei,

Christina Harward, Adiv Kuray, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Click here to view ISW–CTP's Gaza Control-of-Terrain map and here for our interactive control-of-terrain map of Syria.

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The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy. Five unspecified Iranian officials, including Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps members, told the New York Times on December 13 that the Iranian regime is “disoriented” and “befuddled.” The officials added that the regime is “trying to find a way forward with Syria” and will accept “any level of diplomatic presence” in Syria. The New York Times also reported--citing a Tehran-based analyst--that a “Syria debate” is occurring in Iran “at all levels of society.” Iranian civilians and media have openly criticized the regime for funding and bolstering the Assad regime for years at the expense of developing Iran. Shia cleric Mohammad Shariati Dehghan recently stated that Iran should prioritize developing relations with other countries over supporting militias in the region. Dehghan added that the regime should redirect money and resources “back to the people of Iran.” Dehghan’s statements could be indicative of a broader regime and Iranian conversation about how Iran should adjust its regional strategy after the fall of Assad, though Dehghan presumably does not have a large role in policymaking or the government. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently described criticisms such as Dehghan’s as a “crime” during a speech on December 13.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is facing two perceived existential threats in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, which almost certainly caused the SDF to deprioritize the counter-ISIS mission. The United States helped create the SDF by binding together Kurdish and Arab forces in Deir ez Zor. Arab communities in Deir ez Zor and Raqqa have begun defecting from the SDF and an end to SDF rule in Arab areas, which threatens to unravel the fragile Kurdish-Arab coalition that the United States helped establish. Turkey is simultaneously threatening to destroy the SDF. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan threatened on December 13 to “eliminate” the SDF, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and People’s Defense Units (YPG). Fidan added that these groups must leave Syria. The SDF, given that it prioritizes these existential threats over the threat it faces from ISIS, has stopped all counter-ISIS operations. This reallocation of SDF resources creates opportunities for ISIS to reemerge and leaves the United States without a viable counter-ISIS partner in Syria, at least temporarily.

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Reactions to Syria: The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy.

• Blinken in the Middle East: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the situation in Syria with senior Turkish and Iraqi officials on December 12 and 13. Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on December 12 and 13, respectively, to try to persuade Turkey “not to press [its] advantage” against the Kurdish-controlled, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.

• Syrian Democratic Forces: The SDF is facing two perceived existential threats in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, which almost certainly caused the SDF to deprioritize the counter-ISIS mission. SDF commander General Mazloum Abdi announced that the SDF plans to negotiate its role in a future Syrian government, likely to prevent further unrest within Arab populations and militias under the SDF.

• Religious and Sectarian Tension in Syria: Reports of Sunni Muslims harassing and threatening minority religious and sectarian groups in Syria continue to gain traction in the information space, which could create opportunities for extreme groups to incite further religious- or sectarian-based violence. CTP-ISW will continue to report these indicators of any interfaith or sectarian violence given the serious nature of these crimes and the risk that revenge, sectarian, and interfaith killings and harassment could spark larger-scale cycles of violence.

• Israel in Syria: The IDF continued to operate in the Israel-Syria disengagement zone and on the Israel-Syria border on December 13. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on December 13 that he ordered the IDF to prepare to stay on Syrian Mt. Hermon during the coming months.

• Russia in Syria: Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia's longer-term military presence in the country. The status of Russia's helicopter base at Qamishli in northeastern Syria remains unclear, however.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of Syria in response to the Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium-confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels.

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