Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Carolyn Moorman, Siddhant Kishore, Christina Harward, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

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The HTS-controlled interim government is continuing to reconcile with former members of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). The Russian-backed SAA 5th Corps in Lattakia is reportedly negotiating with the interim government to “merge its forces” into the new Syrian army. Integrating members of other armed groups, including the SAA, into the new army could reduce insecurity and instability during the transition period. Syrian media separately reported on December 16 that the interim government is negotiating with the Iraqi federal government to “recover” over 2,000 former SAA soldiers who fled to Iraq during the Syrian opposition offensive. Around 2,150 SAA soldiers and high-ranking officers are currently staying at a camp in western Anbar Province near the Iraqi border with Syria. The mayor of Rutba District, Anbar Province, told Iraqi media on December 16 that the majority of soldiers at the camp wish to return to Syria since HTS granted a general amnesty to SAA soldiers whom the Assad regime conscripted under compulsory service. HTS leader Ahmed al Sharaa (aka Abu Mohammad al Jolani) stated on December 15 that he will end mandatory conscription in Syria. It is unclear how the interim government will generate enough income to support a volunteer army.

The HTS-controlled interim government is also continuing to signal that it will reform the Syrian security establishment. The interim government Interior Minister, Mohammed Abdul Rahman, stated in an interview with al Araby on December 16 that the interim government has a “ready plan” to reform the security establishment. Rahman stated that the security establishment needs “major reforms,” including in the fields of “procedures, internal work regulations, and laws.” Rahman added that the interim government will dissolve security institutions that were previously “a source of terror” for the Syrian people. The Interior Ministry has begun recruiting police officers in Damascus, Hama, and Homs in recent days as part of a “comprehensive plan to ensure access to a safe society.” Syrian media previously reported that the interim government would "conduct an assessment” and reorganize the SAA.

Key Takeaways:

• HTS and the Syrian Security Sector: The HTS-controlled interim government is continuing to reconcile with former members of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).

• Syrian Transition: HTS has not suggested it will implement key elements of UNSCR 2254 and is attempting to change the resolution’s guidance to account for Syria’s “new reality.” HTS leader Ahmad Shara (Jolani) noted on December 16 that Syria is not ready for elections, and the interim government has so far failed to outline any process for generating a constitution. HTS-selected officials within the transitional government would presumably be relied upon to establish a method to write a constitution, including the selection of various powerbrokers across the country and in different minority groups to attend negotiations.

• Northern Syria: A four-day ceasefire between the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Manbij area expired without an extension on December 16. The Turkish-backed SNA is reportedly seizing private and government property in Manbij. Local media reported that at least some of these seizures target Kurds, “under the pretext of [the Kurds] belonging to the SDF.

• Syrian Democratic Forces: Arab elements continue to defect from the Syrian Democratic Forces. The head of internal security for the al Busayrah and Dhiban region in SDF-controlled Deir ez Zor Province announced he and “hundreds” of his fighters would join the HTS-led Military Operations Department.

• Israel in Syria: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to operate in southern Syrian towns near the Jordanian border on December 16.

• Israel’s October 25 Strike on Iran: Israel’s large-scale aerial attack on Iranian missile production sites on October 25 significantly damaged Iran's missile production capability, including its ability to export Iranian-made missiles to partners like Russia and the Houthis.

• ISIS: US Central Command (CENTCOM) is continuing to conduct airstrikes in previously regime-held areas to disrupt ISIS operations.

• Iranian Information Space: Some Iranian media outlets appear to be engaged in an information campaign to stoke sectarian tensions and promote a hardline approach toward the new HTS-led interim government.

• Russia-HTS Negotiations: Russia continues to negotiate with the interim Syrian government to maintain its military presence at the Hmeimim Air Base and Port of Tartus in Syria, but Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's recent appeals to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) suggest that talks may have hit a snag.

• Russia in Syria: Russia continues to withdraw elements of its force grouping in Syria to the western coast amid limited reports that Moscow plans to fully withdraw within one month. UK-based, Qatari-owned news outlet Al Araby al Jadeed reported on December 16 that sources "close to the [HTS-led] military operations department" in Syria stated that Russia will withdraw all its military forces from Syria within one month.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of Syria in response to the Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium-confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels.

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