Johanna Moore, Ria Reddy, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, and Nicholas Carl

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A senior official in the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) expressed the readiness to negotiate with the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim government in order to determine the future role of the SDF. The official, Riad Darar, said that the SDF would negotiate to ensure its participation in a new Syrian political structure and unify the country. Darar qualified that the SDF would negotiate only if there were a ceasefire with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the establishment of a demilitarized zone around Kobani. These comments come as Turkey, the SNA, and HTS have coerced the SDF to disarm and integrate into a new Syrian security sector under HTS control, depriving it of its autonomy.

Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan separately said on December 21 that Turkey would only discuss the establishment of a demilitarized zone around Kobani after the SDF reaches an settlement with the HTS-led interim government. This demand is incompatible with the SDF requirement for a ceasefire and the establishment of a demilitarized zone precedes negotiations with HTS.

Turkey and HTS are continuing to coordinate their efforts to coerce the SDF into disarming and integrating into the HTS-led defense apparatus. Fidan met with HTS leader Ahmed al Shara in Damascus on December 22 to discuss Turkish support for the interim government and its control over all Syrian territory. Fidan previously said on December 21 that Ankara prefers for HTS to address its SDF concerns but reiterated that Turkey would do “whatever it takes” to ensure Turkish national security. This remark refers to the stated Turkish strategic objective of ”eliminat[ing]” the SDF. Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler similarly expressed support for HTS and SNA efforts to “liberate” territory from the SDF during a visit with Turkish forces on the Syria-Turkey border. Turkish forces are stationed on the border near Kobani, Syria, in a fashion that resembles preparations before previous Turkish incursions into northern Syria.

Key Takeaways:

• Syria: A senior SDF political official expressed the readiness to negotiate with HTS in order to determine the future role of the SDF. Turkey and HTS are continuing to coordinate their efforts to coerce the SDF into disarming and integrating into the HTS-led defense apparatus.

• The HTS-led interim government continues to signal a shift away from Iran and the Axis of Resistance. Israeli media reported that HTS leader Ahmad al Shara recently decided to prevent Iranian civilian and military flights from transiting Syrian airspace.

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei discussed Syrians revolting against unspecified oppressors during a speech. This marks the second time that Khamenei has discussed young Syrians mobilizing and arming themselves since Assad fell.

• Gaza Strip: The IDF 162nd Division continued operating in the northern Gaza Strip on December 22. Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli forces operating in the northern Gaza Strip.

• Unspecified sources told Egyptian media that Israel requested the release of 34 hostages, including five female IDF soldiers and 11 men of fighting age, in the first phase of a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal with Hamas.

• Lebanon: The IDF is conducting an “extensive” operation to clear military equipment and unexploded ordinance from northern Israel towns and communities. The IDF 91st Division continued operations in southern Lebanon on December 22. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) continued to seize sites in southern Lebanon on December 22 that were previously affiliated with Palestinian militias.

• Yemen: US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted airstrikes targeting a Houthi missile storage facility and a command-and-control facility in Houthi-controlled territory in Sanaa, Yemen, on December 21.

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ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of Syria in response to the Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium-confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels.

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