Johanna Moore, Ria Reddy, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, and Nicholas Carl

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The SDF and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continued to engage in fighting around Tishreen Dam and Qere Qozak Bridge on December 23. Elements of the Manbij Military Council, which is under the SDF, thwarted an attack on Tishreen Dam, according to the People’s Defense Units (YPG) Media Center. Forces then combed nearby villages used by the SNA to stage attacks. The Manbij Military Council forces reportedly destroyed an SNA tank in Abu Qalqal, around 9.5 kilometers northwest of Tishreen Dam. SDF spokesperson Farhad Shami reported that SDF elements are operating around 15 kilometers from Manbij City. Footage posted on December 23 by anti-Kurdish media appeared to show the SNA in possession of an SDF armored vehicle after reportedly killing its crew.

Elements of the SDF continue to defect in areas that are protesting SDF control. Around 70 Arab SDF fighters from the Raqqa Military Council refused orders to join fighting at Tishreen Dam and turned their weapons into their command headquarters. Anti-Kurdish media claimed tha around 10 fighters abandoned fighting in the Aleppo countryside and returned home to al Shaddadi. A group of fighters from Markada, south of Hasakah, defected from the SDF as well.

Key Takeaways:

• Syria: The HTS-led Syrian interim government reportedly stated that it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed SDF with SDF leadership. The government also reportedly wants to avoid negotiations that would grant regional autonomy to the SDF.

• Syria: Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria. Russia’s only remaining positions are at Hmeimim and Tartus along the Syrian coast.

• Iraq: The Iraqi federal government is reportedly reconsidering its request for US forces to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2025 because it is concerned that the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria could threaten Iraqi security.

• Iran: Iran is facing a severe energy crisis marked by electricity and natural gas shortages. This crisis presents a serious threat to regime stability given that it will likely stoke anti-regime sentiments and could spark protests.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of Syria in response to the Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium-confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels.

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