Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Carolyn Moorman, Alexandra Braverman, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter

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An explosion from a former SAA position in Homs City suggests that HTS does not yet have full control on the ground and that local groups and individuals can access and repurpose unexploded ordinance. Syrian media reported a large explosion near a former SAA barracks in Homs City on December 27, injuring nine people. The Homs Police Commander Colonel Alaa Omran told state media that former regime elements rigged and detonated ordinance in a missile warehouse in the city to target a passing civilian. A Syrian source contradicted the police commander’s statement, however, and claimed that the explosion was the result of Syrians attempting to remove parts from old air defense missiles to sell them. Taking apart and repurposing explosives inside of munitions is one way military organizations can build rudimentary improvised explosive devices. The incident demonstrates that HTS does not control all former SAA weapons stockpiles and that locals can still access some of these stockpiles. This incident also suggests that the HTS-led security forces have not fully established total control over Homs City if these positions are easily accessible.

The HTS-led interim government has thus far failed to prevent individual opposition fighters from targeting members of the Alawite community. Unspecified opposition fighters have looted homes and stolen vehicles belonging to Alawites in Lattakia Province—a former regime stronghold—since the fall of the Assad regime. An Alawite sheikh in Damascus told Reuters on December 26 that there have been multiple instances of “[Alawites] being beaten at a checkpoint.” The HTS-led interim government has established several checkpoints across Syria since the fall of the Assad regime, but it is unclear who has attacked Alawite citizens at the checkpoint in Damascus. An HTS fighter in Damascus separately told Reuters that unspecified individuals offloaded a bus and beat Alawite passengers on December 26. These Alawite community members are framing these events as sectarian-motivated, underscoring the mistrust and fear that is permeating Alawite communities at this time. These instances of sectarian violence have caused some Alawites to refuse to hand in their weapons to the interim government, highlighting how the Alawite community currently distrusts the interim government to guarantee their security.

Key Takeaways:

• Explosion in Homs: An explosion in Homs suggests that HTS does not yet have full control on the ground and that local groups and individuals can access and repurpose unexploded ordinance.

• Sectarian Tension in Syria: The HTS-led interim government has thus far failed to prevent individual opposition fighters from targeting members of the Alawite community.

• HTS and Christian Communities: The HTS-led interim government deployed forces to the Christian town of al Masmiyah in Daraa Province on December 27 to maintain security in the town during Christmas celebrations.

• HTS Operations Against Former Regime Elements: HTS-led security forces engaged alleged former regime fighters in several villages west of Homs on December 26. HTS-led security forces entered Balqassa village, west of Homs City, on December 26, reportedly to pursue regime-affiliated official Shuja al Ali.

• HTS-Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Negotiations: The HTS-led interim government is not publicly responding to SDF overtures to negotiate the SDF’s incorporation into the new Syrian army and incorporation into a Syrian state. It appears increasingly unlikelythat the HTS-led government’s leadership views negotiating with the SDF as a priority as it formalizes relations with Turkey.

• SDF-Syrian National Army (SNA) Fighting: Local sources reported that the SDF continued to advance southwest of Lake Assad into SNA-controlled territory south of Tishreen Dam on December 27. The SNA also continued to engage the SDF west of Tishreen Dam in the Manbij countryside.

• Iraq: Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri inspected combat units along the Iraq-Syria border on December 26 and 27. Ameri also reviewed security and intelligence plans and emphasized the need to conduct unspecified “preemptive operations.” Ameri’s inspections come as Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani implicitly threatened on December 27 to militarily intervene in Syria if the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) resurges and threatens Iraq.

• West Bank: Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)'s Jenin Battalion said that it engaged with “occupation forces” in multiple areas of Jenin on December 26. Palestinian militias, including PIJ, historically used the term ”occupation forces” to refer to Israeli forces, but CTP-ISW has not observed IDF operations in Jenin in recent days. It would be a notable inflection if PIJ began referring to the PA as ”occupation forces.” 

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ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of Syria in response to the Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium-confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels.

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