The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim Syrian government held a “victory conference” on January 29, during which it formalized much of its consolidation of power since the fall of Bashar al Assad. The conference announced the appointment of HTS leader Ahmed al Shara as the transitional president, though has informally been the de-factor of the interim government for months. Shara is now responsible for forming an interim legislative council until a new constitution is drafted and approved, according to the conference. Shara, at the conference, identified his priorities as ”filling the power vacuum, preserving civil peace, building state institutions, working to build a developmental economic infrastructure, and restoring Syria's international and regional standing” in his speech. Shara has previously described the interim government overseeing a three-to-four transition period, during which he would presumably rule and exert heavy influence over the allocation of political power.
The victory conference separately announced the disbanding of all Assad regime institutions and its constitution. The interim government has proposed previously holding a representative Syrian national dialogue to write a new Syrian constitution, though it is unclear whether a date or any participants have yet been identified.
The victory conference also announced the planned dissolution of all former opposition parties in Syria. The conference specifically stated that “all military factions, political, and civil revolutionary bodies will be dissolved and integrated into state institutions.” This decree follows months of talks between HTS and armed groups. The interim Defense Ministry announced on January 19 that over 60 military factions agreed to join the new Syrian armed forces.
Military factions allied with HTS that participated in the overthrow the Assad regime attended the conference, including Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) leaders, who are sanctioned by the United States for abuses against Kurds. An anti-Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) source reported that the SDF was not invited to the conference. It remains unclear if the interim government’s decree dissolving all military factions will apply to the SDF or if the SDF has agreed to such terms. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said January 14 that he wants the SDF to integrate into the Defense Ministry as a “bloc,“ which the interim defense minister reportedly rejected.
Russia and the HTS-led interim Syrian government failed to reach an agreement on January 28 on Russian basing in Syria. A Russian delegation that included Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Special Presidential Representative to Syria Alexander Lavrentyev traveled to Syria on January 28 to discuss Russian access to its military bases at Latakia and Tartus. An unspecified Syrian source told Reuters that Russia and HTS only agreed to continue discussions. An unspecified Russian source similarly told Bloomberg on January 28 that talks on Russian basing are “stuck.” The stalled negotiations come as Russia continues to evacuate military assets from its bases at Latakia and Tartus.
US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff discussed the implementation of the hostage-ceasefire with Israeli officials in Israel on January 29. Witkoff visited the Gaza Strip and Netzarim Corridor with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer. Witkoff’s visit to Israel follows his visit to Saudi Arabia on January 28 where he reportedly worked on a “broad Middle East agreement” that includes the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and eventual normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Two senior Hamas officials said on January 29 that continued delays in the Israeli aid delivery to the Gaza Strip will affect the progression of the ceasefire-hostage agreement, including the release of hostages. The officials added to French media that Israel has slowed the speed of aid deliveries expected in the first week of the ceasefire that were to include fuel, tents, heavy machinery, and other equipment. A spokesperson for the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT)—a department within the Israeli Defense Ministry—refuted Hamas’ claim and said that 3,000 aid trucks have entered the Gaza Strip in the past four days alone. The ceasefire-hostage deal stipulates that 4,200 aid trucks must enter the strip weekly during the first phase of the agreement.
Key Takeaways:
- Syria: The HTS-led interim Syrian government held a “victory conference,” during which it formalized much of its consolidation of power since the fall of Bashar al Assad.
- Syria: Russia and the HTS-led interim Syrian government failed to reach an agreement on Russian military basing in Syria.
- Iraq: Some members of the Shia Coordination Framework, such as Nouri al Maliki, are reportedly trying to remove Falih al Fayyadh as PMF chairman.
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