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[ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 2월 2일

by Summa posted Feb 03, 2025
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Key Takeaways: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 최신 상황

주요 요점:

  • 러시아군은 2월 1일 쿠르스크주 수자에 있는 러시아 민간인 기숙사를 공격한 것으로 알려졌으며, 러시아 당국은 이 공격에 대한 러시아의 책임을 부인하고 우크라이나를 비난하려고 했다.
  • 러시아는 대피 및 재활 프로그램이라는 명목으로 우크라이나 어린이들을 점령된 크림반도와 러시아로 불법 추방하려는 노력을 계속하고 있다.
  • 우크라이나군은 최근 토레츠크 근처에서 진격했고, 러시아군은 최근 리만, 시베르스크, 차시프 야르, 포크로프스크, 벨리카 노보실카 근처에서 진격했다.
  • 러시아군은 제네바 조약을 위반하여 점령된 우크라이나에서 민간인을 강제로 러시아군에 동원하고 있다.

분류: 전쟁, 국제 관계
관련된 주요 국가: 러시아, 우크라이나, 미국
향후 전망: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 장기화될 것으로 예상되며, 양측 모두 상당한 인명 및 물적 피해를 입을 것으로 보인다. 전쟁의 결과는 유럽의 안보 질서에 큰 영향을 미칠 것이다.

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

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Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, Davit Gasparyan, Christina Harward, and George Barros with William Runkel


February 2, 2025, 3:45 pm ET

Click here to view our Russia-Ukraine interactive maps.


Click here to view our special reports since 2024.

Russian forces reportedly struck a dormitory holding Russian civilians in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 1 as Russian authorities widely attempted to deny Russian responsibility for the strike and blame Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces conducted a guided glide bomb strike against a former boarding school dormitory holding 84 local Russian civilians preparing to evacuate and four Ukrainian police officers. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike wounded four people and killed four. The Ukrainian Air Force warned that Russian sources are attempting to blame Ukraine for the strike. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and senior Russian officials claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike from Sumy Oblast against a dormitory holding civilians in Sudzha. Russian milbloggers widely claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted the strike. Russian opposition outlet Agentstvo reported that Russian state-run TV stations Channel One (Perviy Kanal) and NTV claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted the strike against a dormitory holding civilians in Sudzha but also reported Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast. ISW is unable to independently verify the details of the strike at this time.


Russia continues efforts to illegally deport Ukrainian children to occupied Crimea and Russia under the guise of evacuation and rehabilitation programs. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor on Children's Issues Daria Herasymchuk reported on February 2 that Russia has illegally deported at least 20,000 Ukrainian children since 2022 and that Ukraine has repatriated 1,189 children with support from humanitarian organizations and Qatar, South Africa, and the Vatican. Herasymchuk stated that Russian authorities have killed Ukrainian parents, kidnapped their children, and transported the children to "rehabilitation" or "evacuation" camps in occupied Crimea. Herasymchuk stated that Russian authorities have also separated children from their families in illegal filtration camps. Ukraine's Regional Human Rights Center identified 13 such "rehabilitation" or "evacuation" camps in occupied Crimea alone. Russian authorities reportedly use the camps in occupied Crimea to indoctrinate and militarize Ukrainian children before further deporting them to Russia for adoption. Herasymchuk warned that Russian authorities are increasingly attempting to mobilize Ukrainian teenage boys into the Russian military - a violation of the Geneva Convention. ISW has reported extensively on Russia's crimes in occupied Ukraine, including the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. The United Nations Genocide Convention Article 2 defines "forcibly transferring children of a group to another group" as an act constituting genocide.


Key Takeaways:


  • Russian forces reportedly struck a dormitory holding Russian civilians in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 1 as Russian authorities widely attempted to deny Russian responsibility for the strike and blame Ukraine.


  • Russia continues efforts to illegally deport Ukrainian children to occupied Crimea and Russia under the guise of evacuation and rehabilitation programs.


  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.


  • Russian forces continue to forcibly mobilize civilians in occupied Ukraine into the Russian military in violation of the Geneva Convention.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

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