Siddhant Kishore, Katherine Wells, Andie Parry and Nicholas Carl

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Senior Iranian military leaders have urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent months to approve the construction of a nuclear weapon, according to an unspecified Iranian official speaking to the Telegraph. The article reported that the military leaders have previously supported Khamenei’s policy against nuclear weapons but now feel that they are faced with an “existential threat” since US President Donald Trump entered office. The unspecified Iranian official said that “we have never been this vulnerable, and it may be our last change to obtain [a nuclear weapon] before its too late.” The official added that the Khamenei’s decisions to forbid nuclear weapons and negotiations with the United States is “driving the regime toward collapse.” The official claimed that Iran has been “just a few button presses away from building a nuclear weapon for some time now.” This article follows the New York Times reporting that Iranian scientists are exploring how to build a crude nuclear weapon quickly. These reports are consistent with CTP-ISW assessment that Iran has restarted its nuclear weapons research but has not yet made a deliberate effort to build a weapon.

Khamenei's Foreign Affairs Advisor Kamal Kharrazi previously told the Financial Times in July 2024 that Iran was open to pursuing nuclear weaponization if faced with ”an existential threat.” Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi alluded to the ”heated debate” on whether to build a nuclear weapon on January 28, when Araghchi threatened pursuing one if the E3 triggered snapback sanctions before October 2025.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Senior Iranian military leaders have urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent months to approve the construction of a nuclear weapon, according to an unspecified Iranian official.

• Gaza Strip: The IDF completed its withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor in the Gaza Strip as part of its obligations under the ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

• Syria: An SNA commander claimed that his forces captured Tishreen Dam but withdrew in response to commands from higher headquarters.

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