Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, Annika Ganzeveld, Ben Rezaei,

Ria Reddy, Johanna Moore, Avery Borens, and Nicholas Carl

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NOTE: CTP-ISW is adjusting its Middle Eastern coverage to focus more closely on Iran and the Axis of Resistance in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. CTP-ISW is also reducing its coverage of the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and Lebanon. This refocusing is in response to the continued expansion of the Iranian nuclear program and the risk of an escalation in the coming months, as well as the Israeli defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah. We will cover and assess Axis of Resistance activities in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon at a less granular level moving forward. We will continue to publish analysis on other key US interests in the region, such as the defeat of ISIS and Syrian stability. We will also continue to adjust our Middle Eastern coverage and make those adjustments clear in response to regional dynamics and priorities, just as we did immediately after Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel and the fall of the Assad Regime.

Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander—threatened to attack "all [US] bases and ships in the region" during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20. Jabbari said that Iran would conduct a third True Promise attack against Israel and "destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa." Jabbari's statements echo recent statements from senior IRGC commanders threatening to conduct another missile attack on Israel.

CTP-ISW previously assessed that IRGC commanders have likely resurfaced these threats in recent days to try to deter an Israeli attack on Iran and to reassure the Iranian population that the IRGC would respond to any attack on Iran.

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Rhetoric: Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander—threatened to attack "all [US] bases and ships in the region" during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20.

• Hayat Tahrir al Sham and Syrian Democratic Forces Negotiations: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi said that he and Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara agreed on “general principles” but still disagree on “practical details,” which likely refers to the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army.

• Syrian Constitution: The Syrian Preparatory Committee continued “dialogue sessions” for Raqqa, Hasakah, and Rif Dimashq provinces in Damascus on February 21.

• Iraqi Politics: The United States reportedly threatened to sanction the Iraqi federal government if it prevents the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from resuming oil exports.

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