Ria Reddy, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, Siddhant Kishore, Carolyn Moorman, Ben Rezaei, Katherine Wells, and Brian Carter

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Iran increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium by 92.5 kilograms (kg), or 2.2 significant quantities, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report. A significant quantity is the “approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.” The Associated Press reported on February 26 that Iran possesses 274.8 kilograms (kg) of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, or 6.6 significant quantities, as of February 8, citing an unreleased IAEA report. This amount marks a 92.5 kg increase in Iran's stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium and a 2.2 increase in significant quantities since the IAEA published its last report in November 2024. The IAEA report stated that Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium is at 8,294.4 kgs, marking a 1,690 kg increase since November 2024. The IAEA report also noted that Iranian officials continued to prevent four additional experienced IAEA inspectors from monitoring the Iranian nuclear program.

The significant expansion in Iran's enriched uranium stockpile coupled with Iran’s categorical rejection of nuclear negotiations with the United States makes it very unlikely that Iran will conclude a deal with the E3 and the United States ahead of June 2025. The E3 reportedly gave Iran a June 2025 deadline to conclude a nuclear deal before the E3 imposes snapback sanctions. The JCPOA snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium by 92.5 kilograms (kg), or 2.2 significant quantities, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report. A significant quantity is the “approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.

• The significant expansion in Iran's enriched uranium stockpile coupled with Iran’s categorical rejection of nuclear negotiations with the United States makes it very unlikely that Iran will conclude a deal with the E3 and the United States ahead of June 2025. The E3 reportedly gave Iran a June 2025 deadline to conclude a nuclear deal before the E3 imposes snapback sanctions.

• Iran is continuing its preparations for a potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Head Mohammad Eslami stated that Iran will hold nuclear defense exercises at nuclear facilities in Iran on February 26 and 27.

• Senior Iranian military commanders continued to threaten on February 26 that Iran could attack the United States and Israel in response to a potential Israeli attack on Iran. 

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