Kelly Campa, Andie Parry, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, Alexandra Braverman, Avery Borens, Parker Hempel, Maryam Sadr, Bailey Pasternak, and Nicholas Carl

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Iran appears to be revising its air defense concepts since Israel neutralized the Iranian S-300s in 2024. Brigadier General Ali Reza Sabahi Fard, who commands the Artesh Air Defense Force and Khatam ol Anbia Joint Air Defense Headquarters, said on March 1 that the armed forces plan to change their air defense “tactics” in response to “current threats.” Sabahi Fard was likely referring to the possibility of a conventional strike on Iran. Iranian officials have conducted a flurry of activities in recent months that further reflect their concern about a potential strike on Iran. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri appointed Sabahi Fard as commander of the Khatam ol Anbia Joint Air Defense Headquarters in early February 2025. This headquarters is responsible for coordinating air defense activity between the Artesh and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Sabahi Fard’s appointment highlights the regime focus on strengthening Iran’s air defense capabilities and improving air defense coordination between the Artesh and IRGC. The Artesh Air Defense Force and IRGC Aerospace Force have also conducted a series of exercises, particularly around Iranian nuclear infrastructure, in recent weeks. These exercises have tested indigenous Iranian air defense systems, such as the Bavar 373. Iran may recognize that Russia’s constrained manufacturing capacity and demand for ground-based air defense systems will likely prevent Iran from acquiring new S-300s in the near future, and Iran may therefore prioritize the development of its indigenous systems. Sabahi Fard announced on March 2 that Iran will soon unveil a new version of the Bavar 373.

Iranian leaders are responding to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted strikes into Iran in its April and October 2024 that neutralized the S-300s. These Russian-sourced S-300s were the most advanced Iranian air defense capability to this point. The loss of the S-300s has forced Tehran to develop new ways to counter aerial threats, though it is far from clear that it will develop any seriously viable solutions.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iran appears to be revising its air defense concepts since Israel has neutralized the Iranian S-300s in 2024.

• Syria: Israeli leaders ordered the IDF to “prepare to defend the Druze community” in southern Syria. It is unclear what political end state they seek to achieve.

• Syria: The interim Syrian government is likely trying to increase security cooperation with local actors in southern Syria.

• Syria: The PKK announced a ceasefire with Turkey. It remains unclear how this ceasefire will affect the SDF.

• Syria: Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara appointed seven individuals to draft a non-permanent “constitutional declaration” for him to approve.

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