A senior official from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba implicitly warned on March 20 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria if US forces do not withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2025. The official suggested that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would conduct “advanced and modern strikes” targeting US forces if US forces do not withdraw from Iraq by this date. The United States and Iraq agreed in September 2024 that hundreds of US-led international coalition forces would withdraw from Iraq by September 2025 and that the remaining forces would withdraw by the end of 2026. The Iraqi federal government has reportedly considered postponing the withdrawal of US forces in recent months due to the security threat it perceives that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria poses to Iraq, however. The removal of US forces from Iraq and Syria is a long-standing Iranian objective and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias frequently conducted attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria between October 2023 and January 2024. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba previously resisted Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani’s order to halt attacks targeting US forces in early January 2024. Ghaani recently met with Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders in Baghdad on March 19 and may have discussed efforts to remove US forces from Iraq with these leaders.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthis are increasingly sharing military knowledge, which could increase both groups’ ability to threaten US and allied interests in the region. The Houthis have extensive experience in drone warfare and have shared this experience with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, as evidenced by the death of a Houthi drone expert in a US airstrike south of Baghdad in July 2024. The Houthis also reportedly operate three offices across Iraq and a training camp in a town controlled by Kataib Hezbollah in Diyala Province, according to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). RUSI reported on March 19 that Iranian-backed fighters in the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have reportedly deployed to Yemen in recent months to train Houthi fighters in combat technology, including drones and improvised explosive devices. The presence of Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters in Yemen and Houthi members in Iraq highlights that knowledge transfers between the Houthis and Iraqi militias are reciprocal.
US President Donald Trump announced on March 19 that the United States will partner with regional allies “to dismantle Houthi operations and secure the Red Sea.” These allies almost certainly include Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) given that Saudi and Emirati-backed proxy forces in Yemen would be best suited to threaten Houthi control in Yemen. It is unclear what Trump means by ”dismantle.” Defeating the Houthis and ending their operations would probably require the US and its partners to support the Yemeni government to threaten Houthi control of Yemen.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted at least six airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 19. CENTCOM targeted a cotton mill in Zabid, Hudaydah Governorate, which local media reported the Houthis had converted into a mines and explosive devices factory. The Houthis claimed that 16 Houthis fighters have died in the recent CENTCOM strikes. The Houthis launched an unspecified number of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones targeting the USS Harry S. Truman and US destroyers in the Red Sea on March 19 in response to the CENTCOM strikes.
Key Takeaways:
Threat to US Forces: A senior official from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba implicitly warned on March 20 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria if US forces do not withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2025. The United States and Iraq agreed in September 2024 that hundreds of US-led international coalition forces would withdraw from Iraq by September 2025 and that the remaining forces would withdraw by the end of 2026. The Iraqi federal government has reportedly considered postponing the withdrawal of US forces in recent months due to the security threat it perceives that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria poses to Iraq, however.
Iraqi Militia-Houthi Cooperation: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthis are increasingly sharing military knowledge, which could increase both groups’ ability to threaten US and allied interests in the region. The Royal United Services Institute reported on March 19 that Iranian-backed fighters in the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have reportedly deployed to Yemen in recent months to train Houthi fighters in combat technology, including drones and improvised explosive devices.
SDF Integration into the Syrian State: A Syrian journalist reported that the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will withdraw from Deir ez Zor and Raqqa provinces and form an SDF-affiliated army division in Hasakah Province. It is unlikely that the SDF would agree to withdraw from Raqqa and Deir ez Zor provinces and integrate into the Syrian army while under active attack from Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). An “SDF-affiliated” division would be consistent with SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi’s demand that the SDF maintain some degree of autonomy by joining the Defense Ministry as a “military bloc,” however.
Syrian Insurgency: Syrian government forces have conducted a series of raids and arrests targeting insurgent networks in Deir ez Zor Province, northeastern Syria, since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 19. Insurgent cells in northeastern Syria may be driven by different underlying motivations than cells in western Syria. Anti-interim government attacks in northeastern Syria have occurred in towns along the primary smuggling route from Iraq into Syria on the southern bank of the Euphrates River.
Iranian Economy: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei highlighted Iran's economic weaknesses and problems in his Nowruz speech on March 20. Khamenei's recent rejection of nuclear negotiations with the United States, which would potentially provide Iran with sanctions relief, will likely contribute to worsening Iranian economic conditions. The Iranian regime will also likely not be able to meaningfully improve the Iranian economy if it does not address underlying issues, such as rampant corruption, nepotism, and mismanagement, that currently plague the economy. | 
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