The Kremlin appears to be increasingly concerned with the Russian military's ability to retain forces in the event of demobilization following a ceasefire or a negotiated peace. Russian propagandist Anastasiya Kashevarova claimed on April 17 that the Kremlin assigned Russia’s military chiefs of staff in early April to survey contract servicemen and mobilized personnel about their intent to reenlist in the Russian military should Russia complete its war in Ukraine. Kashevarova implied that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is trying to retain active servicemen by offering them full social benefits, subsidized rent, a monthly salary of 100,000-to-200,000 rubles ($1,225 to $2,450), 60 days of paid leave annually, and other benefits. Kashevarova claimed that the Russian military chiefs of staff asked all Russian servicemen who had indicated that they intend to refuse to reenlist following Russia's war in Ukraine to write formal reports documenting their refusal. Kashevarova assessed that the survey may be part of the Russian MoD's effort to estimate potential reductions in force and forecast the strength of the Russian military in the event of the completion of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Russian government signed a decree on April 19 that will increase the salaries for military and law enforcement personnel by 4.5 percent starting on October 1, 2025, and the Ukrainian Resistance Center assessed that this decree aims to incentivize recruitment and force retention. ISW has recently observed reports of the Russian MoD intensifying efforts to coerce mobilized servicemen into signing military contracts, which could help Russia to retain contract personnel in the event of demobilization.
Russian milbloggers expressed doubts that the Russian MoD will be able to retain the current size of the Russian military if the Russian MoD does not promise — and honor — increased financial benefits. One milblogger confirmed that Russian military leadership is surveying Russian forces, but claimed that Russian military leadership is not offering any special benefits to increase force retention rates. The milblogger, citing unnamed sources within an unspecified Russian operational grouping of forces fighting in Ukraine, claimed that some field commanders independently imposed a new requirement for servicemen to document their refusal to reenlist after facing nagging from senior military commanders about the need to retain forces on the battlefield. The milblogger added that the Russian military’s persistent commitment to wounded personnel on the battlefield underscores Russia’s need to generate new recruits and retain existing forces. The milblogger implied that the Russian MoD is conducting this survey in an effort to assess which financial and social benefits are the most attractive and most likely to attract Russian servicemen to reenlist after a potential demobilization. The milblogger suggested that these efforts ultimately will be futile, as the Russian military continues to face widespread logistics problems, fails to provide servicemembers career advancement opportunities, and continues to lose credibility by providing exaggerated field reports. Another Russian milblogger observed that the Russian MoD would need to amend the Russian military’s official military pay scale and official budget to deliver on promised raises. The milblogger added that the Russian military must conduct reforms that transform the average Russian’s perception of military service away from being a lucrative opportunity towards being an honorable responsibility.
Key Takeaways:
- The Kremlin and some Russian federal subjects are continuing to increase financial incentives and expand eligibility requirements for contract military service.
- Some Russian federal subjects are failing to meet the Kremlin's recruitment targets as the Russian volunteer recruitment system continues to suffer from high recruitment costs and other inefficiencies.
- Some Russian federal subjects may be failing to meet recruitment targets because they are unable to compete with financial incentives offered in other federal subjects.
- Putin signed a decree on April 21 exempting select volunteers who fought in Ukraine in volunteer units or Kremlin proxy forces from being conscripted into the Russian military, likely as part of the Kremlin's effort to centralize control over informal volunteer units.
- The Kremlin is continuing to expand the "Time of Heroes" Higher School of Public Administration Program across occupied Ukraine, likely in an effort to raise a new class of loyal occupation officials.
- Russian milbloggers criticized Russian state media after it published a video of Russian long-range drone operators conducting a drone strike from a high-rise in Moscow City.
- Russia reportedly developed a new version of the "Kometa" navigation chip, enhancing the resistance of Russian satellite navigation signals against Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW).
- On April 16, Putin awarded the honorific "Guards" titles to four Russian motorized rifle regiments, an aviation regiment, and an army corps that have fought in Donetsk and Kherson oblasts.
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