Ria Reddy, Kelly Campa, Ben Rezaei, Johanna Moore, Katherine Wells, Ben Schmida, Andie Parry, and Annika Ganzeveld

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A US journalist reported on May 29 that Iran and the United States are trying to reach a "political framework text" before the next International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting on June 9 and 10. CTP-ISW cannot verify this report, although Iran may calculate that reaching an interim deal with the United States before the meeting would delay or prevent snapback sanctions. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism, which expires in October 2025, allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.” The IAEA releases a quarterly verification and monitoring report on Iran’s nuclear program. The IAEA Board of Governors will discuss the IAEA’s next quarterly report at the June Board of Governors meeting. The IAEA previously passed a censure resolution proposed by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) in November 2024 that requires the IAEA to produce a “comprehensive report” about Iranian nuclear activities in addition to the IAEA’s regular verification and monitoring reports. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on May 28 that the IAEA will release the comprehensive report "soon." The IAEA’s next quarterly report and the comprehensive report will both almost certainly confirm Iranian noncompliance with the JCPOA, which will lay the foundation for the E3 to impose snapback sanctions. The E3 recently threatened to trigger snapback sanctions on Iran by August if Iran and the United States do not reach a “substantial deal” by then. Iran may calculate that reaching an interim deal with the United States would delay or prevent snapback sanctions by demonstrating Iran’s willingness to resolve the nuclear issue.

IAEA Deputy Director General and head of the IAEA Safeguards Department Massimo Aparo inspected two undeclared Iranian nuclear sites in Tehran Province on May 28 as part of the March 2023 IAEA-Iran Joint Statement. The joint statement identified three locations in Iran that contain undeclared nuclear material and equipment: Turquzabad, Varamin, and Marivan. The IAEA reported in May 2023 that Marivan is "no longer an outstanding issue,” which suggests that Aparo visited the Turquzabad and Varamin sites during his visit to Iran. The most recent IAEA Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Safeguards Agreement report from February 2025 stated that there was no progress toward implementing the March 2023 Joint Statement between November 2024 to February 2025.

Key Takeaways:

• US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations: A US journalist reported on May 29 that Iran and the United States are trying to reach a "political framework text" before the next International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting on June 9 and 10. CTP-ISW cannot verify this report, although Iran may calculate that reaching an interim deal with the United States before the meeting would delay or prevent snapback sanctions.

• US-Syria Ties: The United States and Syria continued to strengthen ties on May 29. The United States Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack and Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Asaad al Shaibani raised the US flag over the US Ambassador’s residence in Damascus on May 29. Barrack stated that Syria will no longer be designated as a State Sponsor of Terrorism during the flag raising ceremony. US President Donald Trump must submit a report to Congress certifying that the Syrian government does not support acts of international terrorism before the United States can remove this designation.

• Hezbollah Reconstitution: Hezbollah appears to be cooperating with the Lebanese state to disarm itself in southern Lebanon while likely attempting to regenerate its forces north of the Litani River. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam told the Wall Street Journal on May 28 that the Lebanese state has achieved about 80 percent of its objectives to disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. An unspecified Israeli military official said that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is "pleased by” the LAF’s success in disarming Hezbollah. The Syrian transitional government’s frequent interdictions of weapons shipments heading to Lebanon from Syria suggests that Hezbollah is attempting to replenish its weapons stockpiles north of the Litani River even while cooperating with the LAF in southern Lebanon. The Syrian transitional government has continued to dismantle Iranian-linked smuggling networks between Iraq and Syria, which may decrease weapons shipments to Lebanese Hezbollah.

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