Authors: Grace Mappes, Kelly Campa, and Karolina Hird, with Nicholas Carl

Data cutoff: 10 am ET, July 29

ISW has launched the Adversary Entente Task Force (AETF) to examine the strategic interactions between the United States’ main adversaries: Russia, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and North Korea. AETF will publish weekly products that supplement the regional expertise in ISW’s existing Russia-Ukraine, Middle East, and Indo-Pacific portfolios.

Russia launched another communications satellite into orbit for Iran as part of the countries’ growing space relationship. The Iranian Space Agency announced that Russia launched the Nahid-2 satellite into orbit from the Vostochny Cosmodrome on July 25 and that Iran has received data from the satellite. The Iranian Space Agency director said that Iran is using the satellite to establish broadband communications across the country and test its ability to transmit information on the Ku frequency band, which would enable Iran to transmit data faster and on a greater scale. Iran could use this ostensibly civilian satellite for military communications and systems networking. Russia has now launched five satellites into orbit for Iran since August 2022. Moscow and Tehran have additionally agreed to jointly produce Khayyam satellites, which Iran uses for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). This Russian support to the Iranian space program likely represents the limit of defense-adjacent assistance that the Kremlin is currently prepared to provide. Russia has failed to provide meaningful political and military support to Iran in recent weeks despite Iranian requests and the extensive provision of lethal military equipment to support the Russian war against Ukraine. The Russian ability to give Iran material support at any meaningful scale outside the space program is severely constrained since the Kremlin has committed virtually all its weapons and other military equipment to the war against Ukraine. Russia has likely offered Iran technical support to its space program to partially compensate Tehran.

Key takeaways:

• Russia launched another communications satellite into orbit for Iran as part of the countries’ growing space relationship. This Russian support likely represents the limit of military-adjacent assistance that the Kremlin is currently prepared to provide Iran with.

• The PRC has become primarily responsible for sustaining the Russian drone industry, as PRC parts have become irreplaceable components in Russian drone development, production, and operation. North Korea and Iran have continued to provide critical support to the Russian drone industry as well.

• Russia and North Korea have continued to increase their logistical and transit connections. This underscores the strategic partnership that Moscow and Pyongyang have been developing since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

• Belarus and other authoritarian states have indicated interest in acquiring PRC technologies related to social control and internal security. This highlights the role that the PRC plays as an exporter of techno-authoritarianism.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin likely seeks to exploit the US interest in economic cooperation with the PRC to portray himself as a peacemaker and secure concessions on the war in Ukraine.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL UPDATE

Website | Jobs & Internships

Follow ISW on social media:

Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.

ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.