Syrian security forces told Emirati media on August 16 that the Syrian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is preparing a three-pronged offensive to seize Raqqa and Deir ez Zor provinces. This report and others are likely part of an effort by Turkey and some elements of the Syrian transitional government to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to surrender to the transitional government. The Syrian security sources told Emirati media that the MoD has assembled 50,000 troops near the city of Palmyra, Homs Province, to capture Deir ez Zor and Raqqa provinces with support from local Arab tribes if the SDF refuses to hand over these provinces to the transitional government by October 2025. A separate Syrian source said that the MoD is preparing staging grounds for the offensive in Rusafa, Raqqa Province, and Sukhnah, Homs Province, which are 70 kilometers northeast and 166 kilometers northeast of Palmyra, respectively.
It is unlikely that the Syrian transitional government is preparing for a major offensive at this time. Local Syrians would almost certainly observe and publicize the movements of 50,000 personnel. The much smaller mobilizations towards the Syrian coast in March 2025 and southwestern Syria in July 2025 garnered significant media attention both within Syria and in the West. Satellite imagery shows no prepared staging areas in any of the locations mentioned by the sources. Some of the locations make little military sense as staging areas, moreover. Sukhnah is a less optimal staging area for a major offensive against the SDF compared to other areas closer to the Euphrates River. Deir ez Zor City and its surroundings have a significant amount of military infrastructure left over from the Assad regime, including Deir ez Zor Airport, which would be far more suitable than the remote desert town of Sukhnah. Sukhnah is also 135km by road from Deir ez Zor City, and any force staged in Sukhnah would need to travel 135km to reach its point of departure. Palmyra is even further to the west. Forces travelling from the staging grounds to the point of departure would also have to travel to areas frequently attacked by small ISIS cells. These cells could not stop a large Syrian force, but they could disrupt the movement and make an already challenging operation even more complex.
Rusafa presents a more viable staging ground for the MoD than Sukhnah. MoD forces in Rusafa would be positioned at the rear of SDF forces based in Deir Hafer and could try to cut off the ground line of communication between Deir Hafer and SDF-controlled Raqqa Province. Rusafa is located 26 kilometers south of two hydroelectric dams controlled by the SDF. The MoD would have to capture these towns in order to stage an assault to capture Raqqa City. An unspecified source told Emirati media that newly-integrated Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) units would advance on SDF positions near Tishreen Dam, which is located northeast of Deir Hafer. This force would be canalized by the Tishreen Dam crossing, the eastern side of which is surely guarded by SDF units. Tishreen Dam is the only intact Euphrates River crossing between Lake Assad and the Turkish border.
This report comes amid similar reports in Turkish media that Turkey and the Syrian transitional government are preparing for an offensive against the SDF. Turkish media recently claimed on August 14 that a joint offensive by Turkey and the Syrian government against the SDF is imminent. These reports likely seek to pressure the SDF to integrate into the Syrian state and surrender its territory by threatening a military operation against it. | 
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