메뉴 건너뛰기

군사국방

국방뉴스

[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 8월 18일

by Summa posted Aug 19, 2025
?

단축키

Prev이전 문서

Next다음 문서

ESC닫기

크게 작게 위로 아래로 댓글로 가기 인쇄
?

단축키

Prev이전 문서

Next다음 문서

ESC닫기

크게 작게 위로 아래로 댓글로 가기 인쇄
```html 핵심 내용

핵심 내용:

  • 크렘린은 8월 18일 다자 정상회담 이후 미국 대통령 도널드 트럼프가 발표한 것과는 달리, 양자 또는 삼자 정상 회담에 대해 공개적으로 약속하지 않았다.
  • 서방 지도자들은 8월 18일 정상회담에서 정의롭고 지속적인 평화를 보장하기 위해 우크라이나에 대한 강력한 안보 보장의 중요성을 재확인했다.
  • 러시아 관리들은 잠재적인 평화 협정에서 우크라이나에 대한 유럽의 제안된 안보 보장을 대부분 거부했다.
  • 서방 지도자들은 트럼프, 젤렌스키, 푸틴 간의 향후 삼자 회담 이후에 이어질 수 있는 휴전에 대한 지지를 표명했다.
  • 러시아군은 8월 18일 백악관 회담에 앞서 민간인 사상자를 발생시킨 우크라이나 후방 지역에 대한 장거리 공격을 감행했다.
  • 러시아의 예산 제약으로 인해 러시아는 입대 보너스 지급을 위한 자금 조달과 우크라이나 전쟁 참전을 위한 군인 모집을 위해 대체 메커니즘을 사용해야 한다.
  • 러시아군은 지속적인 우크라이나 반격에 직면하여 도브로필리아 방향으로의 침투를 활용하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있다.
  • 최근 러시아 군인이 국제법을 명백히 위반하여 포크롭스크 방향에서 우크라이나 여성을 살해했다.
  • 우크라이나군은 최근 도브로필리아 인근에서 진격했다. 러시아군은 최근 리만, 토레츠크, 포크롭스크 인근에서 진격했다.

분류:

군사 분석, 우크라이나 전쟁 관련 정보

관련 주요 국가:

  • 우크라이나
  • 러시아
  • 미국

향후 전망:

우크라이나 전쟁은 장기화될 가능성이 높으며, 러시아와 서방 간의 외교적 해법 모색은 쉽지 않을 것으로 예상됩니다. 러시아의 군사적 자원 고갈과 우크라이나군의 반격은 전쟁의 향방에 영향을 미칠 주요 요인입니다. 또한, 전쟁의 지속은 인명 피해와 인도적 위기를 심화시킬 수 있습니다.

```

[원문]

August 18, 2025

Information Cutoff: 10:00 pm ET

Jessica Sobieski, Jennie Olmsted, Grace Mappes, Justin Young, Nate Trotter, and George Barros

TOPLINES

The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump's announcement following the August 18 multilateral summit. Trump stated that he called Russian President Vladimir Putin following the August 18 summit and began to arrange a bilateral meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin at an unspecified date and undetermined location. Trump stated that he will meet with Zelensky and Putin in a trilateral meeting at an unspecified time after the bilateral meeting. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov spoke to reporters following the August 18 Trump-Putin call and that Putin and Trump “expressed support for the continuation of direct negotiations between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine” and expressed that "it would be necessary to study the possibility of raising the level of representatives of the Ukrainian and Russian sides" — a far cry from agreeing to leader-level bilateral and trilateral meetings. Zelensky reiterated, following the August 18 summit, that he is ready to meet with Putin unconditionally and that Russia was the first to propose a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian meeting followed by a trilateral meeting with the United States. Zelensky stated that territorial issues are issues that he will leave "between [himself] and Putin."


Western leaders reaffirmed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure a just and lasting peace at the August 18 summit. Trump met with Zelensky at the White House before both joined a meeting with European leaders, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian President Giorgia Meloni, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. The leaders discussed security guarantees for ensuring a lasting peace in Ukraine, plans for future meetings between Ukrainian and Russian leaders, and continued NATO and EU support for Ukraine. Trump stated that the meeting went well and that the US and European diplomatic and security support is paving the way for peace in Ukraine and Russia. Zelensky stated that he and Trump agreed to work together on an all-for-all exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) and civilian prisoners, and the return of Ukrainian children whom Russia had kidnapped.


The Western leaders emphasized the importance of a peace deal and security guarantees that deter further aggression against Ukraine and ensure both Ukrainian and European security. Von der Leyen, Meloni, and Starmer expressed support for Ukrainian security guarantees styled after NATO's Article 5, which obliges member states to take "such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force," in case of aggression against a single member state. Trump stated that his intent is that the unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine will deter future aggression against Ukraine. Trump also verbally stated that the United States will provide some unspecified support for the security guarantees, with European states bearing most of the burden of these guarantees. Trump’s readout of the meeting posted on Truth Social states that “various European countries” would provide the security guarantees and that the United States would provide “coordination” for the guarantees. The US position on American involvement in providing Ukraine security guarantees, therefore, remains unclear. Zelensky stated in a joint press conference with Trump that Ukraine needs security guarantees from its partners as well as resources to keep its military strong, including weapons, training, and intelligence sharing, and that a strong Ukrainian military is itself a security guarantee. Zelensky noted that Ukraine and European partners now have a program to purchase weapons from the United States and that this is part of the guarantee of a strong Ukrainian military.


Ukraine reportedly proposed a deal to purchase US weapons and produce Ukrainian drones in exchange for US security guarantees. The Financial Times (FT) reported on August 18 that it obtained a document that Ukraine will promise to purchase $100 billion worth of US weapons with European financing should the United States provide security guarantees, but noted that the document did not specify which weapons Ukraine seeks to purchase. The FT reported that Ukraine also proposed a $50 billion deal to produce drones with Ukrainian companies, but that the documents did not indicate how much of the drone deal would be procurement or investment. The FT cited four people familiar with the matter that these proposals were on a Ukrainian list of talking points shared with European leaders ahead of the August 18 summit.


Russian officials largely rejected Europe's proposed security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential peace agreement. Trump stated on August 18 during his meeting with Zelensky and European leaders that Putin stated on August 15 at the Alaska summit that Russia would accept security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace agreement. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on August 18 that Russia "categorical[ly] reject[s]" "any scenario that envisages the appearance in Ukraine of a military contingent with the participation of NATO countries," however. Zakharova's rejection covers both a formal NATO contingent to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine as well as contingents from any NATO member state in Ukraine, even if those contingents are not part of a NATO mission. Zakharova's statement is consistent with previous Kremlin statements rejecting the possibility of any NATO member state deploying a military contingent to Ukraine and threatening that Russia would deem any such deployment of forces to Ukraine as legitimate military targets. Trump and other EU officials reiterated that any deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine would not be a formal NATO military contingent.


Western leaders expressed support for a ceasefire that may follow a possible future trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin. Trump stated that all the leaders in attendance at the August 18 multilateral summit “would obviously prefer an immediate ceasefire while we work on a lasting peace," but that "as of this moment, it's not happening." Trump stated that he supports a ceasefire because it could stop the casualties "immediately." Merz and Macron also expressed support for Ukraine and Russia to implement a ceasefire either ahead of or following a trilateral Trump-Zelensky Putin meeting. Both Trump stated that both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin "can talk a little bit more" about a potential ceasefire, presumably in a potential future bilateral or meeting.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump's announcement following the August 18 multilateral summit.


  • Western leaders reaffirmed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure a just and lasting peace at the August 18 summit.



  • Russian officials largely rejected Europe's proposed security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential peace agreement.


  • Western leaders expressed support for a ceasefire that may follow a possible future trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin.


  • Russian forces conducted long-range strikes against Ukrainian rear areas that resulted in civilian casualties ahead of the August 18 White House meetings.


  • Russian budgetary constraints are forcing Russia to employ alternative mechanisms to fund enlistment bonus payments and recruit soldiers for its war in Ukraine.


  • Russian forces are struggling to exploit the infiltration in the Dobropillya direction in the face of continued Ukrainian counterattacks.


  • A Russian servicemember recently murdered a Ukrainian woman in the Pokrovsk direction in clear violation of international law.


  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Dobropillya. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

NEW EMAIL SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS


ISW has launched newly customizable email subscription options. Existing subscribers have been auto enrolled in all lists. Click below to learn more about these options and customize your preferences.

ISW is powered by the support of individuals like you.

Help us stay independent and impactful.

Website | Jobs & Internships


Follow ISW on social media:


FacebookXYouTube | InstagramLinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.


ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.


ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.

TAG •

위로