August 20, 2025

Information Cutoff: 11 AM ET

Karolina Hird, Daniel Shats, and Kelly Campa, with Frederick W. Kagan

A People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-owned paramilitary enterprise is expanding industrial and development cooperation with Russia’s Republic of Tatarstan, potentially setting conditions for the PRC’s involvement in drone production at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (ASEZ). The third annual “Rostki: Russia and China—Mutually Beneficial Cooperation” forum took place in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, on August 18 and 19, and involved business representatives from 36 countries, including numerous Russian and PRC regions. One of the many PRC businesses represented in Kazan was the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC)—a PRC state-owned enterprise and paramilitary organization that operates in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Kremlin newswire TASS reported on August 18 that XPCC Deputy Secretary General Lyu Huiying stated that the XPCC plans to deepen its partnership with the Republic of Tatarstan “in industrial and trade spheres” and that the XPCC and Tatarstan will work to “develop joint projects in energy and mechanical engineering.” Lyu noted that the XPCC is interested in Tatarstan due to its “oil reserves” and “solid industrial base.” Tatarstan Head Rustem Minnikhanov stated on the sidelines of Rostki on August 18 that Tatarstan greatly values cooperation with the PRC within the framework of Sino-Russian cooperative relations, highlighting the broader strategic alignment between Moscow and Beijing.

The PRC would not be a suitable security guarantor for Ukraine because it is invested in Russia’s success against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with US President Donald Trump in Alaska on August 15 to hold negotiations about a peace settlement for the war in Ukraine. Axios reported on August 16 that Putin was willing to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine during the meeting, but had suggested the PRC as one possible security guarantor. PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) spokesperson Mao Ning did not confirm or deny whether Beijing was willing to play this role when a Russian reporter asked about it on August 18, and instead repeated boilerplate rhetoric that the PRC supports a “political solution” to the war. The PRC MFA omitted this question and response from its official press conference readout, which may mean that the PRC has not yet settled on its public position on this question. Mao Ning and PRC state-owned tabloid Global Times praised the Trump-Putin summit as a step in the right direction, however, stating that the PRC is pleased to see an improvement in US-Russia relations and movement toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

• The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), a PRC state-owned enterprise with paramilitary functions, is extending its outreach to Russia’s Republic of Tatarstan. Tatarstan houses the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, where Russia produces Shahed-type attack drones for use in Ukraine largely using cheap labor drawn from vulnerable foreigners. The XPCC may be setting conditions to become more involved in the Russian defense industrial base, including potentially by providing forced Uyghur labor to Russian defense production efforts.
• Despite Russian President Putin’s reported suggestions, the PRC would not be a suitable security guarantor for Ukraine because it is invested in Russia’s success against Ukraine.
• Iran is coordinating diplomatic efforts with Russia and the PRC to counter the imposition of snapback sanctions and likely seeks commitments from the Adversary Entente to continue some degree of military and economic support for Iran in the event that sanctions are reimposed.

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