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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 8월 20일

by Summa posted Aug 21, 2025
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```html 핵심 내용

핵심 내용:

  • 크렘린은 러시아가 우크라이나에 대한 서방의 안보 보장에 거부권을 행사하도록 요구하며, 이는 우크라이나의 지속적인 평화를 위한 조건을 구축하려는 미국, 유럽, 우크라이나의 노력을 훼손하려는 시도입니다.
  • 크렘린은 어떠한 안보 보장도 이스탄불 2022년 프레임워크에서 제안된 것을 기반으로 해야 한다고 요구하는 것으로 보이며, 이는 러시아와 그 동맹국에게 우크라이나에 대한 서방 군사 지원에 대한 거부권을 부여하고, 우크라이나가 미래의 러시아 위협에 무력하게 되도록 만들 것입니다.
  • 크렘린은 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴이 미국 대통령 도널드 트럼프가 제안한 일정에 따라 우크라이나 대통령 볼로디미르 젤렌스키와 즉각적인 양자 회담을 갖는 것을 꺼리고 있음을 계속 시사하고 있습니다.
  • 러시아 경제는 국방비 증가와 서방 제재 및 2차 관세의 부정적인 영향으로 인해 계속해서 재정 적자에 직면하고 있습니다.
  • 2차 관세는 러시아가 유가를 시장 가격 이하로 판매하도록 강요할 가능성이 높으며, 이는 러시아 경제로 유입되는 외화 유입을 감소시키고 러시아의 주요 부를 고갈시킬 수 있습니다.
  • 크렘린은 러시아 수사위원회(슬레드콤) 위원장 알렉산더 바스트리킨을 교체하는 것을 고려하고 있으며, 이는 새로운 젊은 엘리트를 형성하려는 크렘린의 노력의 일환일 가능성이 큽니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 포크롭스크 인근에서 진격했습니다. 러시아군은 북부 수미주와 리만, 토레츠크, 그리고 벨리코미하일리우카 인근에서 진격했습니다.

분류:

국제 정치, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁

관련 주요 국가:

  • 러시아
  • 우크라이나
  • 미국

향후 전망:

러시아와 우크라이나 간의 평화 협상은 난항을 겪을 것으로 예상됩니다. 러시아는 우크라이나에 대한 영향력을 유지하려 하고, 서방의 지원을 약화시키려 할 것입니다. 러시아 경제는 제재의 영향으로 계속 어려움을 겪을 수 있으며, 이는 국내 정치에도 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 우크라이나 전선에서의 전투는 계속될 것으로 보이며, 추가적인 영토 손실 가능성도 존재합니다. 새로운 엘리트 형성은 러시아 내부 정치 지형에 변화를 가져올 수 있습니다.

```

[원문]

August 20, 2025

Information Cutoff: 1 pm ET

Jennie Olmsted, Daria Novikov, Jessica Sobieski, Justin Young, Anna Harvey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nate Trotter, Adham Fattah, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

TOPLINES

The Kremlin is demanding that Russia have a veto over any Western security guarantees for Ukraine in an effort to undermine ongoing US, European, and Ukrainian efforts to establish conditions for lasting peace in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on August 20 that any serious discussions on Western security guarantees for Ukraine without Russian input are a “road to nowhere” and that Russia “cannot agree” that now-proposed "collective security issues" can be resolved without Russia, effectively demanding a Russian veto over Western security guarantees for Ukraine. Lavrov also threatened that Russia will take “firm and harsh” action to ensure that Russia’s “legitimate interests” are a part of any postwar security arrangement for Ukraine.


The Kremlin appears to be demanding that any security guarantees be based on those proposed in the Istanbul 2022 framework, which would grant Russia and its allies the right to veto Western military assistance to Ukraine and leave Ukraine helpless in the face of future Russian threats. Lavrov stated on August 20 that Russia is in favor of collective security guarantees that are “truly reliable” and that a good example of such guarantees was evident in the 2022 Istanbul Ukraine-Russia negotiations, which would have permanently prohibited Ukraine from joining NATO, imposed limitations on the Ukrainian military, and banned Ukraine from receiving Western military assistance without any imposing restrictions on the size or capability of Russian forces. The security guarantees proposed in the draft 2022 Istanbul Protocol treated Russia as a neutral security “guarantor state” of Ukraine along with the other permanent members of the UN Security Council, failing to identify Russia as a belligerent in the war. The outlined security guarantees would give China and Russia veto power over any action the guarantors could take in response to a renewed Russian attack by granting the UN Security Council the authority to take “measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.” Such "security guarantees" would allow the Kremlin and its allies to dictate the means and tools that Ukraine could use to defend itself against Russia and restrict the ability of other guarantor states to come to Ukraine's assistance.


The Kremlin is continuing to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the timeline proposed by US President Donald Trump. Lavrov stated on August 20 that Putin confirmed his readiness to continue direct negotiations with Ukraine in the Istanbul format. Russian and Ukrainian delegations have engaged in three rounds of bilateral talks in Istanbul since February 2025, which have resulted in nine prisoners of war exchanges, but little more. Lavrov claimed that Putin would consider raising the level of the delegation heads after working groups had been established but added that a summit between Putin and Zelensky would need thorough preparations that could take time. Several US officials have stated that Putin promised Trump that he would meet with Zelensky following the multilateral summit between the United Stated, Ukraine, and European leaders on August 18. Trump stated on August 18 that Zelensky and Putin need to meet urgently and that waiting too long before having a leader-level bilateral meeting would result in thousands of deaths. Lavrov may have attempted to portray the Kremlin’s proposal of continued negotiations within the Istanbul framework and working groups as fulfilling Putin's reported promise to Trump to hold a bilateral meeting with Zelensky. Continued negotiations within the Istanbul framework are a far cry from a head of state-level bilateral meeting, however, and Lavrov's statement is likely part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to protract peace negotiations and deflect blame for delays onto Ukraine and the West.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The Kremlin is demanding that Russia have a veto over any Western security guarantees for Ukraine in an effort to undermine ongoing US, European, and Ukrainian efforts to establish conditions for lasting peace in Ukraine.


  • The Kremlin appears to be demanding that any security guarantees be based on those proposed in the Istanbul 2022 framework, which would grant Russia and its allies the right to veto Western military assistance to Ukraine and leave Ukraine helpless in the face of future Russian threats.


  • The Kremlin is continuing to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the timeline proposed by US President Donald Trump.


  • The Russian economy continues to face budget deficits as a result of increased defense spending and detrimental effects of Western sanctions and secondary tariffs.


  • Secondary tariffs are likely forcing Russia to sell oil below market price, which could be decreasing the incoming flow of foreign funds into the Russian economy and depleting Russia’s primary source of wealth.


  • The Kremlin is reportedly considering replacing Russian Investigative Committee (Sledkom) Chairman Alexander Bastrykin, likely as part of the Kremlin's efforts to form a new and younger elite.


  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Toretsk, and Velykomykhailivka.

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