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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 8월 22일

by Summa posted Aug 23, 2025
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```html 핵심 내용

핵심 내용:

  • 크렘린은 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴이 우크라이나 대통령 볼로디미르 젤렌스키와의 즉각적인 양자 회담을 원하지 않음을 계속해서 시사하고 있습니다.
  • 러시아 관리들은 푸틴-젤렌스키 회담 및 우크라이나-러시아 평화 협상의 부재에 대한 책임을 우크라이나의 민주적으로 선출된 정부의 정당성을 거부함으로써 회피하고 있습니다.
  • 우크라이나는 러시아와 점령된 우크라이나의 러시아 군사 및 석유 기반 시설에 대한 공격 캠페인을 계속했습니다.
  • 우크라이나 당국은 러시아 당국이 우크라이나 점령 지역에서 추방한 우크라이나 민간인을 러시아-조지아 국경 검문소로 돌려보냈습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 수미주 북부와 포크롭스크 및 노보파블리우카 인근에서 진격했습니다. 러시아군은 수미 북부와 자포리자 동부 지역, 차시우 야르 및 노보파블리우카 인근에서 진격했습니다.

최신 자료 및 관련 링크:

  1. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - 러시아 공격 캠페인 평가: 2024년 6월 10일 (영어)

    ISW의 최신 보고서로, 러시아의 우크라이나 전쟁 관련 전반적인 상황, 전선 변화, 양국 수뇌부 간의 관계 등을 분석합니다. 이 보고서에서는 특히 푸틴과 젤렌스키의 회담 가능성에 대한 러시아의 입장을 자세히 다룹니다.

  2. BBC News 코리아 - 우크라이나, 러시아 점령 지역 반격 강화… "최전선에 돌입"

    BBC 코리아의 기사로, 우크라이나의 반격 작전 상황, 러시아 점령 지역에서의 상황 변화, 그리고 민간인 송환 문제 등을 다룹니다. 이 기사에서는 우크라이나와 러시아 간의 전반적인 군사적 활동과 그로 인한 인명 피해, 인도적 문제에 초점을 맞춥니다.

  3. VOA (Voice of America) - 우크라이나, 러시아와 평화 회담 조건 변화… "영토 회복" 강조

    VOA의 기사로, 우크라이나의 평화 회담 조건 변화, 러시아와의 협상 가능성, 그리고 영토 회복에 대한 우크라이나의 입장을 분석합니다. 이 기사에서는 전쟁의 외교적 측면, 특히 양국 간의 협상 조건 변화에 대한 논의를 심층적으로 다룹니다.

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[원문]

August 22, 2025

Information Cutoff: 7:45 pm ET

Grace Mappes, Daria Novikov, Olivia Gibson, Justin Young, Anna Harvey, and Kateryna Stepanenko with Nate Trotter

TOPLINES

The Kremlin continues to signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave an interview to NBC on August 22 and reiterated that there is currently no plan for Putin to meet with Zelensky. Lavrov stated that Putin would meet Zelensky "when the agenda is ready for a summit," but noted that "this agenda is not ready at all." Lavrov accused Zelensky of failing to accept Russia’s demanded preconditions for negotiation, such as “discussion of territorial issues,” despite the fact that Zelensky stated on August 18 that he remains willing to meet with Putin unconditionally and directly discuss territorial questions. Putin notably rejected Zelensky's May 2025 invitation for the leaders to hold direct negotiations in Istanbul. The Kremlin has used Lavrov multiple times over the past few days to clarify the Kremlin's position that there will be no Putin-Zelensky meeting on the timeline that US President Donald Trump desires, and Lavrov's interview with a US-based media outlet likely aims to directly clarify this position to Western audiences.


Russian officials continue to deflect blame for the lack of a Putin-Zelensky meeting and Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations by rejecting the legitimacy of Ukraine's democratically elected government. Lavrov also asked on August 22 how Russia can meet with an individual “pretending to be a leader,” falsely implying that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader. Lavrov also questioned on August 21 Ukrainian officials' legitimacy and their eligibility to sign a peace agreement with Russia. Other Russian officials, including State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa, State Duma International Affairs Committee Deputy Head Andrei Klimov, and State Duma Defense Committee First Head Chairperson Alexei Zhuravlev also rejected Zelensky's legitimacy and questioned the legality of any peace agreement that Zelensky would sign. Russian officials have repeatedly denied and undermined the legitimacy of Zelensky’s presidency in an ongoing effort to justify Russia’s war against Ukraine, portray Zelensky as a false actor in peace negotiations, and deflect from Russia’s ongoing refusal to participate in negotiations. Lavrov and other Russian officials' claims about Zelensky's illegitimacy also set informational conditions for Russia to reject the legality of any peace agreement Russia may sign and justify Russia's reneging on such an agreement in the future.


Ukraine continued its strike campaign against the Russian military and oil infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Major Robert "Magyar" Brovdi reported on August 21 that Ukrainian drones struck the Unecha oil pumping station northeast of Vysokoye, Bryansk Oblast, which is part of Russia’s Druzhba pipeline and plays a key role in supplying Russia’s military-industrial complex. Geolocated footage published on August 21 shows a Ukrainian strike on one of the Unecha station's oil pumps and a large fire. Ukrainian forces most recently struck the Unecha facility overnight on August 12 to 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 22 that Ukrainian missile, artillery, and aviation launched coordinated strikes on a command post of the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies and a large ammunition depot in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Geolocated footage from the Ukrainian General Staff published on August 22 shows the Ukrainian strike against the Rubikon command post and ammunition depot east of occupied Novotoretske, Donetsk Oblast (northeast of Pokrovsk). The Ukrainian Navy reported on August 22 that the Ukrainian Navy struck a Russian drone base at the Khersones Airbase west of occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, hitting up to three Iranian Mohajer-6 drones and two Forpost reconnaissance drones that the Russian military uses to monitor the Black Sea.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The Kremlin continues to signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to have an immediate bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.


  • Russian officials continue to deflect blame for the lack of Putin-Zelensky meeting and Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations by rejecting the legitimacy of Ukraine's democratically elected government.


  • Ukraine continued its strike campaign against Russian military and oil infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine.


  • Ukrainian authorities returned Ukrainian civilians whom Russian authorities deported from occupied areas of Ukraine to a checkpoint on the Russia-Georgia border.



  • Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and near Chasiv Yar and Novopavlivka.

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