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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 1월 26일

by 맘씨 posted Jan 27, 2024
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[요약]

핵심 요점:

  • 크렘린과 미국 관리들은 러시아가 우크라이나와 서방의 완전한 항복 이외에는 아무것도 원하지 않는다는 크렘린의 지속적인 징후 속에서 블라디미르 푸틴 러시아 대통령이 의미 있는 협상에 참여할 의향이 있다는 소문을 거부했습니다.

  • 우크라이나의 "중립"과 NATO 확장에 대한 모라토리엄에 대한 러시아의 요구는 항상 푸틴이 우크라이나를 침공한 것에 대한 핵심 정당화 중 하나였으며, 이러한 요구에 대한 가상의 양보는 푸틴이 현재 고려할 가능성이 매우 낮은 푸틴의 주요 전략적 및 수사적 후퇴를 나타낼 것입니다.

  • 블라디미르 푸틴 러시아 대통령은 우크라이나를 전쟁의 원인으로 비난하는 틀에 얽매인 크렘린 서사를 반복하면서 솔레다르 방향의 러시아군을 강조했습니다.

  • 벨고로드주에서 1월 24일 러시아 Il-76 군용 수송기가 추락한 상황은 여전히 ​​불분명합니다.

  • 유럽 연합(EU)은 우크라이나에 가까운 미래에 "긴급한 군사적 필요"를 충족시키기 위해 추가로 50억 유로를 제공할 것입니다.

  • 러시아 국방부(MoD)는 아프리카에서 러시아의 영향력을 확대하고 이전 바그너 그룹 작전을 통합하기 위한 노력을 계속하고 있습니다.

  • 러시아는 2023년에 주로 서방에서 17억 달러 상당의 첨단 마이크로칩과 반도체를 수입하여 러시아에서 이러한 기술을 박탈하려는 서방의 제재를 우회했습니다.

  • 러시아군은 전역에서 계속되는 위치적 교전 속에서 아브디이프카 근처로 진격했습니다.

  • 모스크바 시장 세르게이 소뱌닌의 개인적인 사병 회사(PMC)로 추정되는 요소가 우크라이나에 배치되었을 수 있습니다.

  • 러시아 야당 언론은 1월 26일 우크라이나에서 복무하는 제234공수연대(제76VDV사단)의 러시아 군인인 빅토르 필로노프가 점령된 도네츠크주에서 우크라이나 어린이를 입양했다고 보도했습니다.

카테고리: 전쟁, 정치, 외교

주요 국가: 러시아, 우크라이나, 미국

향후 전망: 러시아와 우크라이나 간의 전쟁은 장기화될 것으로 예상되며, 러시아가 우크라이나를 완전히 점령할 가능성은 낮습니다. 미국과 유럽 연합은 우크라이나에 계속해서 군사 및 재정 지원을 제공할 것입니다.




[원문]
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans,

Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

The Kremlin and US officials rejected rumors about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations amid continued indications from the Kremlin that Russia seeks nothing less than full Ukrainian and Western capitulation. Bloomberg reported on January 25 that two unspecified sources close to the Kremlin stated that Putin signaled to senior US officials through indirect channels that Putin is open to negotiations, including those that would provide “security arrangements” for Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that an unidentified intermediary “conveyed signals” to US officials in December 2023 that Putin may be willing to drop his insistence on Ukraine’s “neutral status” and even may ultimately abandon his opposition to Ukraine’s NATO accession. This report may refer to the same supposed backchannel communications reported by the New York Times in late December 2023 about Putin’s supposed interest in a ceasefire. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov denied Bloomberg’s report on January 26, stating that reports about Russian readiness to give up its demands that Ukraine not join NATO are incorrect” and “untrue.” Bloomberg reported that US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson stated that US officials are not aware of these alleged overtures, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on January 19 that he does not see any indication that Putin is serious about looking for a way to end the fighting in Ukraine.

 

Putin and Kremlin officials have increasingly stressed in recent weeks that Russia has no interest in negotiating with Ukraine in good faith, that Russia’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine remain the same, and that Putin continues to pursue his overarching objective to weaken and dismantle NATO.  Former White House Official Fiona Hill told Bloomberg on January 26 that Russian actors want the West to create the idea of such a channel in order to scare Ukraine and frame the US as the only other relevant actor in Ukraine besides Russia. Kremlin officials routinely frame the Russian war in Ukraine as a struggle against the West in order to deny Ukraine’s agency in potential negotiations and to set conditions that seek to convince the West to ignore centering Ukraine’s interests in any negotiations.

 

Russian demands for Ukrainian “neutrality” and a moratorium on NATO expansion have always been and continue to be one of Putin’s central justifications for his invasion of Ukraine, and any hypothetical concession on these demands would represent a major strategic and rhetorical retreat on Putin’s behalf that Putin is extremely unlikely to be considering at this time. Russian calls for Ukrainian “neutrality” are demands that Ukraine amend its constitution to remove commitments to seeking NATO membership and to commit itself permanently not to join NATO or the European Union (EU). Demands for this ”neutral status” are a nested goal within Putin’s decades-long effort to demand changes to the NATO alliance that would weaken the alliance to the point where it would be unable to deter or defeat future Russian aggression in eastern Europe. Putin has long highlighted a permanent moratorium on NATO expansion as one of those goals, which would require a change in NATO’s charter that would, in turn, require a new treaty between member states and effectively grant Russia a veto over future NATO membership. Any Kremlin concessions on these demands would also amount to a significant Russian defeat, as Putin has increasingly used public appearances to reiterate that the invasion’s initial objectives remain the same and to frame the war in Ukraine as a larger geopolitical confrontation with the collective West. These concessions would also be inconsistent with the Kremlin’s apparent growing public confidence about Russian prospects in Ukraine and the attainability of Putin’s maximalist war objectives. Putin is highly unlikely to offer these concessions as he will not stop pursuing his objective to control Ukraine and weaken NATO, barring a decisive defeat.


Key Takeaways:


  • The Kremlin and US officials rejected rumors about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations amid continued indications from the Kremlin that Russia seeks nothing less than full Ukrainian and Western capitulation.


  • Russian demands for Ukrainian “neutrality” and a moratorium on NATO expansion have always been and continue to be one of Putin’s central justifications for his invasion of Ukraine, and any hypothetical concession on these demands would represent a major strategic and rhetorical retreat on Putin’s behalf that Putin is extremely unlikely to be considering at this time.


  • Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated boilerplate Kremlin narratives that blame Ukraine for the war while also highlighting Russian forces in the Soledar direction.


  • The circumstances of the January 24 crash of a Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft in Belgorod Oblast remain unclear.


  • The European Union (EU) will provide Ukraine with an additional five billion euros to meet “urgent military needs” in the near future.


  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts to expand Russia’s influence and subsume previous Wagner Group operations in Africa.


  • Russia reportedly imported $1.7 billion worth of advanced microchips and semiconductors in 2023, primarily from the West, skirting Western sanctions intended to deprive Russia of such technology.


  • Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements throughout the theater.


  • Elements of Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin’s alleged personal private military company (PMC) may have deployed to Ukraine.


  • Russian opposition media reported on January 26 that Viktor Filonov, a Russian soldier in the 234th Airborne Regiment (76th VDV Division) serving in Ukraine, adopted a Ukrainian child from occupied Donetsk Oblast.

Click here to read the full assessment.

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