맘씨공간 - [ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 2월 11일

[요약]

주요 요점:

우크라이나 대통령 볼로디미르 젤렌스키는 현재 우크라이나 총사령관인 알렉산드르 시르스키 대령 대신 올렉산드르 파블류크 중장을 우크라이나 지상군 사령관으로 임명했습니다.
러시아군은 점령한 도네츠크주에 "차르 열차"라는 30km 길이의 장벽을 건설한 것으로 보이며, 향후 우크라이나의 공격에 대비한 방어선 역할을 할 가능성이 있습니다.
우크라이나 군사 전문가들은 러시아 국방 산업 기반(DIB)이 러시아 당국이 묘사하는 것만큼 생산적이지 않지만, 여전히 러시아의 전쟁 노력을 유지할 수 있는 능력이 있다고 지적했습니다.
러시아의 현재 제한된 DIB 생산 능력과 불충분한 연속 탱크 생산 라인은 러시아가 현재 속도로 또는 장기적으로 전쟁 노력을 유지하는 데 필요한 물자를 생산하는 데 어려움을 겪을 것이라는 보장이 아닙니다.
러시아군은 전선 전체에 걸친 지속적인 위치 교전 속에서 아브디이프카 근처와 자포리지아주 서부에서 확실한 진전을 이루었습니다.
CNN은 2월 11일에 러시아가 최대 15,000명의 네팔인을 우크라이나에서 싸우도록 모집했으며, 그 중 많은 사람들이 우크라이나에서 가장 활발한 전선으로 배치되기 전에 열악한 조건과 적절한 훈련 부족에 대해 불평했다고 보도했습니다.
러시아 당국은 점령된 우크라이나에서 청소년과 학생들에 대한 사회적 통제를 강화하고 러시아 정체성과 이념으로 문화적으로 세뇌시키기 위한 노력을 계속하고 있습니다.

카테고리: 전쟁 현황 보고서

주요 국가: 우크라이나, 러시아, 미국

향후 전망: 러시아는 앞으로도 우크라이나에 대한 공세를 계속할 것으로 예상되며, 우크라이나는 계속해서 저항할 것으로 예상된다. 전쟁은 장기화될 가능성이 높다.

해시태그: #러시아 #우크라이나 #전쟁 #군사 #정치

[원문]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

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Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov,

Kateryna Stepanenko, and Fredrick W. Kagan

February 11, 2024, 6:35pm ET

Click

here

to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click

here

to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.

Click

here

to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

Fact Sheet: US Assistance to Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander, replacing current Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Zelensky also made several other service head appointments on February 11. Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Yuriy Sodol as Joint Forces Commander replacing Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev. Zelensky appointed Brigadier General Ihor Skybyuk Air Assault Forces Commander replacing Major General Maksym Myrhorodskyi. Zelensky appointed Major General Ihor Plahuta Territorial Defense Forces Commander replacing Major General Anatoliy Barhylevych, who was appointed Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff on February 10.

Russian forces appear to have constructed a 30-kilometer-long barrier dubbed the “tsar train” in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults. Satellite imagery dated May 10, 2023, and February 6 and 10, 2024 shows that Russian forces constructed a long line of train cars stretching from occupied Olenivka (south of Donetsk City) to Volnovakha (southeast of Vuhledar and north of Mariupol) over the past nine months. A Ukrainian source reported on February 11 that Russian forces have assembled more than 2,100 freight cars into a 30-kilometer-long train. The source reported that Russian forces began assembling the train in July 2023 and suggested that Russian forces intend to use the train as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults. The railway line between Olenivka and Volnovakha is roughly six kilometers from ISW’s current assessed frontline southeast of Novomykhailivka at its closest point and is in an area of the front that was relatively inactive when Russian forces reportedly began construction. Russian forces have recently made marginal territorial gains in this area. The Russians could have assembled the train for other purposes as well.

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander, replacing current Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Russian forces appear to have constructed a 30-kilometer-long barrier dubbed the “tsar train” in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults.

Ukrainian military observers indicated that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is not as productive as Russian authorities portray it to be, but that the Russian DIB is still capable of sustaining Russia’s war effort.

Russia’s current limited DIB production capacity and insufficient serial tank production lines are not guarantees that Russia will struggle to produce enough materiel to sustain its war effort at its current pace or in the long term.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.

CNN reported on February 11 that Russia has recruited as many as 15,000 Nepalis to fight in Ukraine, many of whom complained about poor conditions and lack of adequate training before their deployment to the most active frontlines in Ukraine.

Russian authorities continue efforts to solidify social control over youth and students in occupied Ukraine and to culturally indoctrinate them into Russian identity and ideology.

Click here to read the full assessment.

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