Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, and Brian Carter



Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Hamas’ leaders have very likely calculated that Hamas will survive a Rafah operation and that Hamas should therefore pursue its maximalist ceasefire demands without major concessions. Hamas’ maximalist ceasefire demands appear to have solidified as the IDF drew down its forces in the Gaza Strip beginning in late December 2023. The drawdown indicated to Hamas that the group was winning by forcing the IDF from the Strip. Sinwar indicated to senior Hamas officials in February 2024 that the Hamas was “doing fine” and were “ready for...Rafah.” Sinwar did not fear a Rafah operation because the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the northern Gaza Strip meant Hamas‘ remaining forces in the north would survive. Sinwar’s position almost certainly solidified in April after the remainder of IDF units withdrew from Khan Younis, permanently leaving only one brigade south of Gaza City in the Netzarim Corridor. The withdrawal from Khan Younis will enable Hamas fighters to flee north as the Israeli operation begins.

Key Takeaways:

• Ceasefire Negotiations: Hamas’ leaders have very likely calculated that Hamas will survive a Rafah operation and that Hamas should therefore pursue its maximalist ceasefire demands without major concessions. Both Hamas and Israel said on May 8 that talks are stalled.

• Hamas After Rafah: Hamas will likely survive a major Israeli operation in Rafah if a major operation occurs because Hamas continues to control and operate from territory in the Gaza Strip outside of Rafah.

• United States-Israel Relations: The limited Israeli operation to seize the Rafah crossing does not require a shift in US policy toward the war, according to US officials. The US Secretary of Defense confirmed that the United States paused a munitions shipment bound for Israel, however.

• Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued a limited operation targeting Hamas fighters and infrastructure in eastern Rafah on May 8.

• Iraq: The IDF confirmed that it intercepted an “aerial target” approaching Israel from the east after Iranian-backed militias in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting southern Israel.

• Yemen: CENTCOM reported that the Houthis conducted four attacks targeting maritime shipping on May 6 and 7.

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ISW and CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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