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[ISW] 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁(이란) 업데이트, 2024년 6월 5일

by Summa posted Jun 06, 2024
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```html 주요 사항

주요 사항

  • 이란: IRGC 사령관은 6월 3일 시리아에서 IRGC 쿠드스군 사령관을 사망시킨 이스라엘에 대한 보복을 위협했습니다. 이 사령관은 IRGC 쿠드스군의 일원으로 2012년부터 시리아에 주둔하고 있었습니다.
  • 이란 대선: 전 IRGC 사령관 모흐센 레자이가 6월 28일 이란 대선을 앞두고 강경파 사이에 선거 합의를 도출하려는 것으로 보입니다.
  • 시리아: 시리아 아랍군에 가까운 소식통에 따르면 시리아 정부 기업이 헤즈볼라를 위해 로켓을 제조했다고 합니다. 이는 이스라엘이 시리아의 무기 시설을 표적으로 삼아 공습을 반복하고 있다는 점에서 주목할 만한 사항입니다.
  • 레바논: 이스라엘 관리들은 북부 이스라엘을 표적으로 삼은 헤즈볼라 드론 공격이 증가함에 따라 레바논에 대한 공세에 대해 계속해서 언급하고 있습니다.
  • 가자지구: 이스라엘 국방군 중령은 가자지구에서 팔레스타인 민병대가 "게릴라식" 전술을 사용하여 팔레스타인 민병대가 이스라엘 국방군 부대가 목표 지역에 진입한 후 이스라엘 국방군 부대와 교전하는 방식을 강조했습니다.
  • 전후 팔레스타인: 하마스는 파타가 서안지구와 가자지구를 통치하는 하마스의 영향을 받는 정부가 전쟁의 원하는 정치적 종식 상태에 대해 계속 논의하고 있습니다.
  • 이슬람 국가: 이슬람 국가의 총잡이가 6월 5일 베이루트에 있는 미국 대사관을 공격한 후 총격전에서 레바논군에 부상을 입고 체포되었습니다. 미국인은 사망하거나 부상당하지 않았습니다.

분류: 중동 안보 관련 국가: 이란, 이스라엘, 레바논 향후 전망: 이란과 이스라엘 간의 긴장 고조, 헤즈볼라와 이스라엘 간의 군사적 충돌 가능성, 하마스와 이스라엘 간의 전쟁 재발 가능성
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[원문]

Iran Update

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Andie Parry, Kathryn Tyson, Alexandra Braverman, Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, and Brian Carter


Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami threatened to retaliate against Israel for the June 3 airstrike that killed IRGC Quds Force Gen. Saeid Abyar in Aleppo, Syria. Abyar was a member of the IRGC Quds Force and had been stationed in Syria since 2012.   Salami stated that Israel must “wait” for Iran’s response during the funeral ceremony for Saeid Abyar. The IRGC uses Syria as a regional hub for coordination among the larger Axis of Resistance. Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria targeting weapons transfer lines through Syria to Iranian-backed fighters or proxy groups since the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011. Salami previously stated that Iran has adopted a new "equation” following its April 13 drone and missile attack. Salami emphasized that this “new equation” means that should Israel attack Iran or Iranian targets abroad, Iran would launch attacks targeting Israel directly from Iranian territory. Iran conducted the April 13 drone and missile attack targeting Israel in response to an April 1 IDF airstrike targeting IRGC officials in Syria who played a critical role in the transfer of Iranian-sourced weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah. The June 3 airstrike in Aleppo represented the first Israeli attack on Iranian targets abroad since Salami threatened Israel with Iran‘s “new equation.“


A Syrian Arab Army (SAA)-affiliated source reported on June 4 that the Syrian Defense Laboratories Corporation manufactured rockets that Lebanese Hezbollah has used to conduct attacks against Israeli positions in northern Israel. The Defense Laboratories Corporation works under the Syrian Ministry of Defense to produce equipment and supplies for the SAA. The source suggested that Israel may be targeting Syrian industrial facilities to mitigate the transfer of Syrian-produced weapons to Hezbollah. This statement is consistent with Israel’s air campaign to disrupt the transfer of Iranian military materiel to its partners and proxies in the Levant, especially Hezbollah, by targeting Syrian weapons production facilities.


Key Takeaways:


  • Iran: The IRGC commander threatened to retaliate against Israel for the June 3 airstrike that that killed in IRGC Quds Force general in Syria. The general was a member of the IRGC Quds Force and had been stationed in Syria since 2012.


  • Iranian Presidential Elections: Former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei appears to be trying to promote an electoral consensus among hardliners ahead of the June 28 Iranian presidential election.


  • Syria: A source close to the Syrian Arab Army said that a Syrian government corporation manufactured rockets for Hezbollah. This is notable given the repeated Israeli airstrikes targeting weapons sites in Syria.


  • Lebanon: Israeli officials are continuing to talk about an offensive into Lebanon amid an increase in Hezbollah drone attacks targeting northern Israel.


  • Gaza Strip: An IDF lieutenant colonel highlighted Palestinian militias’ use of “guerilla-style” tactics in the Gaza Strip, in which Palestinian militias allow IDF units to enter their target areas before Palestinian militias engage the IDF troops.


  • Post-War Palestine: Hamas is continuing to discuss its desired political end state for the war, in which a Hamas-influenced government that includes Fatah governs the West Bank and Gaza Strip.


  • Islamic State: A possible Islamic State gunman attacked the US embassy in Beirut on June 5 before being wounded by the Lebanese army in a shootout and arrested. No Americans were killed or injured. 



Click here to read the full update.

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