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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 6월 23일

by Summa posted Jun 24, 2024
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주요 요점:

  • 이슬람 국가(IS)의 북코카서스 지부인 윌라야트 카프카즈가 6월 23일 다게스탄 공화국에서 교회, 유대교 회당, 법 집행 기관을 상대로 복잡하고 조정된 공격을 감행한 것으로 보인다.
  • 러시아 국방부는 우크라이나군이 6월 23일 점령된 세바스토폴에 단거리 ATACMS 공격을 감행했다고 비난했다. 러시아 군사 블로거들은 러시아 국방부와 크림반도의 러시아 점령 당국이 공격을 예방하고 러시아 민간인을 충분히 보호하지 못한 데 대해 광범위하게 비판했다.
  • 우크라이나군은 벨고로드주 네호테예프카에 있는 러시아 동력 소총 연대 지휘소를 공격했다.
  • 부상당한 동료 군인을 처형하는 러시아 군인을 보여주는 최근의 드론 영상은 러시아 군대 내에 만연한 잔혹한 문화를 보여준다.
  • 한국은 최근 러시아-북한 협력이 강화되면서 러시아에 대해 강경한 입장을 취했으며, 이는 러시아가 서울에 우크라이나에 대한 지원을 보류하도록 위협하는 시도가 실패했음을 시사한다.
  • 러시아 연방 보안국(FSB)은 바그너 반란 1주년을 맞아 바그너 그룹 계열의 패트리어트 미디어 홀딩의 전 고위 임직원 2명을 구금했다.
  • 러시아군은 최근 슈미를 점령하고 도네츠크 시와 로보티네 근처로 진격했다.
  • 블라디미르 푸틴 러시아 대통령은 6월 22일 코사크 생도 군단과 러시아 해군 생도 군단을 공식적으로 러시아 국방부(MoD) 관할로 이관하는 법안에 서명했다.
``` ### 분류: 군사, 정치 ### 관련된 주요국가: 러시아, 우크라이나, 한국 ### 향후 전망: 러시아와 우크라이나 간의 전쟁은 계속될 것으로 예상되며, 러시아는 우크라이나에 대한 공격을 계속할 것으로 보인다. 한국은 러시아에 대한 강경한 입장을 유지할 것으로 예상되며, 러시아-북한 협력이 더욱 강화될 것으로 보인다.

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

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Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Kateryna Stepanenko, and George Barros


June 23, 2024, 8:30pm ET 

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

The Islamic State (IS)'s Northern Caucasus branch, Wilayat Kavkaz, likely conducted a complex and coordinated attack against churches, synagogues, and law enforcement structures in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23. Dagestan's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that unknown actors opened fire on a Russian Orthodox church and a synagogue in Derbent at approximately 1800 local time and then reported within the same hour that another group of unknown actors opened fire on a traffic police post in Makhachkala (120 kilometers north of Derbent). There are also reports of a fire at a synagogue in Makhachkala, although Russian official sources have not confirmed a second synagogue attack. Dagestan announced a counter-terrorism regime following the start of the attacks, and Russian law enforcement killed five of the assailants and wounded six. Social media footage shows Russian law enforcement detaining two suspects on a public beach in Makhachkala after they seemingly fled the scene of the shooting. Russian media reported that seven law enforcement officials, a priest, and a church guard died in the attacks and 25 more individuals have been injured. The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee announced the end of the counterterrorism operation in Derbent after the deaths of two suspects but small arms fire exchanges continued in Makhachkala as of 2300 local time on June 23. The Baza Telegram channel claimed that two of the Makhachkala attackers identified as Osman and Adil Omarov, both of whom Russian law enforcement killed, were the sons of Sergokalinsky district head Magomed Omarov. Russian Telegram channels are circulating footage reportedly filmed by Osman Omarov of the Makhachkala synagogue attack. Baza reported that Russian law enforcement has also detained Magomed Omarov and are searching his home. Russian news agency Interfax claimed that Omarov's nephew also took part in the attack and Russian law enforcement killed him.


South Korea has adopted a firm approach against Russia in the wake of recently intensified Russo-North Korean cooperation, suggesting that Russian efforts to threaten Seoul into withholding aid from Ukraine have failed. South Korean National Security Director Chang Ho-jin reiterated on June 23 that the type of military support that South Korea will provide to Ukraine is contingent on the depth and evolution of Russian military cooperation with North Korea. Chang previously stated on June 20 that the June 19 Russia-North Korea strategic partnership agreement had encouraged South Korea to change its long-standing policy prohibiting the transfer of arms to Ukraine, and South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on June 21 that South Korea is now considering sending 155mm artillery shells and unspecified air defense systems to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin notably attempted to threaten South Korea on June 20, stating that Seoul would be making “a very big mistake” if it decided to supply arms to Ukraine. Russian diplomatic officials have tried to retaliate against Seoul's statement about providing aid to Ukraine and claimed that it is "blackmail" against Russia. The Washington Post reported on June 22, citing data obtained by US think tank Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS), that North Korea delivered over 74,000 metric tons of explosives to Russia — equivalent to about 1.6 million artillery shells — between August 2023 and January 2024. The Washington Post reported that these North Korean shipments arrived at 16 sites in Russia, 12 of which were close to known ammunition storage facilities.


Key Takeaways:

  • The Islamic State (IS)'s Northern Caucasus branch Wilayat Kavkaz likely conducted a complex and coordinated attack against churches, synagogues, and law enforcement structures in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23.


  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukrainian forces of conducting a short-range ATACMS strike against occupied Sevastopol on June 23. Russian milbloggers widely criticized the Russian MoD and Russia’s occupation authorities in Crimea for failing to prevent the strike and sufficiently protect Russian civilians.


  • Ukrainian forces struck a Russian motorized rifle regiment command post in Nekhoteevka, Belgorod Oblast.


  • Recent drone footage showing a Russian soldier executing a wounded fellow servicemember exemplifies the brutal culture that is pervasive within the Russian Armed Forces.


  • South Korea has adopted a firm approach against Russia in the wake of recently intensified Russo-North Korean cooperation, suggesting that Russian efforts to threaten Seoul into withholding aid from Ukraine have failed.


  • The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) detained two former senior employees of the Wagner Group-affiliated Patriot media holding on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Wagner mutiny.


  • Russian forces recently seized Shumy and advanced near Donetsk City and Robotyne.


  • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on June 22 officially transferring the Cossack Cadet Corps and the Russian Naval Cadet Corps to the jurisdiction of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Click here to read the full assessment.

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.



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