The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is trying to help Lebanese Hezbollah recover from the severe disruption that Israel has imposed upon it. Two anonymous IRGC officials told the New York Times that Tehran is trying to help Hezbollah establish a secure communications network, name a new secretary general, and rebuild its command structure. The sources also said that a senior IRGC Quds Force officer will travel to Beirut to support this recovery. This report comes after CTP-ISW assessed that Israeli military operations have generated internal disarray in Hezbollah and severely disrupted its strategic- and operational-level military leadership. IRGC Quds Force Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani met with the Hezbollah representative to Iran, Abdullah Safi ed Din, in Tehran on September 29, which is consistent with the New York Times article. Abdullah Safi ed Din is the brother of Hashem Safi ed Din, who is speculated to be one of the top contenders to succeed Hassan Nasrallah as Hezbollah secretary general. Iranian state media widely circulated Ghaani’s meeting likely to reaffirm the close coordination between Iran and Hezbollah.
The Iranian security establishment is likely preoccupied managing the crises that it faces over planning an immediate retaliatory strike to avenge Nasrallah. On one hand, Israeli operations have severely degraded and in some cases defeated Hamas units in the Gaza Strip. On the other hand, Hezbollah appears to be suffering from temporary organizational paralysis. Iranian military leadership needs to urgently address the mounting questions about in what form Hezbollah will emerge from the war. Some Iranian officials who are not engaged in managing these military emergencies, such as Massoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili, have meanwhile focused on debate over how to respond to the killing of Nasrallah, according to the New York Times.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued its decapitation campaign against Hezbollah. The IDF has sustained airstrikes targeting and killing senior and mid-tier Hezbollah commanders, such as Nasrallah, in recent days. The IDF confirmed that over 20 Hezbollah officers died in the airstrike that killed Nasrallah. These officers included Ali Karaki, who was a member of the Hezbollah Jihad Council and commanded the southern axis against Israel. These officers also included senior advisers to Nasrallah and the head of his personal security detail. The IDF more recently killed Nabil Qaouq, who was the deputy chairman of the Hezbollah Executive Council and possibly a member of the Hezbollah Jihad Council, in an airstrike on September 28. Israeli Army Radio reported that Qaouk was expected to participate in Hezbollah leadership the “day after Nasrallah.” Israeli media lastly reported that the IDF conducted a strike targeting Abu Ali Reda, the commander of the Hezbollah Badr unit, in Beirut on September 29. Hezbollah denied the reports that Reda had been killed.
Key Takeaways:
Iran: The IRGC is trying to help Lebanese Hezbollah recover from the severe disruption that Israel has imposed upon it. Iranian military leadership is likely preoccupied managing crises over planning an immediate retaliatory to avenge Hassan Nasrallah.
Lebanon: The IDF continued its campaign to degrade Hezbollah capabilities, kill Hezbollah leaders, and prevent weapons transfers to Lebanon. Hezbollah continued attacking civilian and military sites in Israel.
Yemen: The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting Houthi sites in Yemen in retaliation for Houthi attacks on Israel and in order to restore deterrence vis-a-vis the Houthis.
Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed seven drone and missile attacks targeting Israel. The IDF intercepted a drone that was headed toward Israel over the Red Sea.
Syria: Syrian opposition media reported that an unidentified actor conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militia positions and infrastructure in eastern Syria. | 
[ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 9월 29일
[국방부] 한미 핵·재래식 통합작전의 핵심, 전략사령부 창설