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Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. Iran is responding to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passing a censure resolution submitted by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) on November 21. The resolution condemns Iran for failing to fully cooperate with the IAEA. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi said on November 22 that Iran will “significantly increase” its uranium enrichment capacity in response. Iran could activate some of the IR-6 or IR-2m centrifuges that it has installed at the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities, respectively, in recent months. The IAEA confirmed in August 2024 that Iran had installed but not yet activated eight cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow. The IAEA also confirmed in August 2024 that Iran had installed 10 cascades of IR-2m centrifuges at Natanz. Iran has installed six additional cascades of IR-2m centrifuges at Natanz since August 2024, bringing the total number of cascades of IR-2m centrifuges at Natanz to 37. Only 15 out of these 37 cascades had been activated as of November 2024. Iran currently has around 182.3 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, which is enough uranium, if enriched further, to produce four nuclear weapons.

Lead Iranian nuclear negotiator Kazem Gharib Abadi threatened on November 22 that Iran would withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) if the E3 triggers the “snapback” mechanism in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA snapback mechanism allows its signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.” The E3 censure resolution requires the IAEA to produce a “comprehensive report” on Iranian nuclear activities by spring 2025. CTP-ISW previously assessed that the report would almost certainly confirm Iranian noncompliance with the JCPOA and lay the foundation for the E3 to impose “snapback” sanctions. UK media reported in early November 2024 that the United Kingdom is prepared to trigger snapback sanctions against Iran. Iranian officials have long threatened to withdraw from the NPT, but Gharib Abadi’s warning is noteworthy given the current standoff between Iran and the E3. Gharib Abadi’s warning also comes amid numerous indications that Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons research program.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. Iran is responding to the IAEA Board of Governors passing a censure resolution against Iran.

• Iran: A senior Iranian official threatened that Iran would withdraw from the NPT if the JCPOA signatories trigger snapback sanctions against Iran. The IAEA Board of Governors censure resolution could set conditions for the reimposition of international sanctions on Iran.

• Israel: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz approved the appointment of a new IDF Ground Forces commander. The new commander, Brigadier General Nadav Lotan, previously commanded the IDF 162nd Division.

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ISW–CTP has launched an interactive map of Israeli ground operations to accompany our daily campaign assessments of the Israel–Hamas war. This product complements the daily static maps that ISW-CTP produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level assessments of the war in Israel.

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