Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas. Turkey massed forces on the Turkey-Syria border, dismantled the Kobani-Turkey border wall, and increased drone attacks in the Manbij countryside ahead of a potential Turkish invasion into Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Turkey will not need to intervene in Syria if HTS addresses its concerns with the SDF “properly.” Fidan added on December 13 that Turkey’s strategic objective is to “eliminate” the SDF. HTS has called for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which is an implicit demand for the SDF to disarm and cease to exist as an autonomous organization, consistent with Turkish demands. Unrest, defections, and Turkey’s potential assault pose existential threats to the SDF. Turkey’s offer nominally presents the opportunity for the SDF to avoid a full-scale war but would ultimately still result in the elimination of the SDF.
The SDF is unlikely to accept Turkish maximalist demands, which would result in the SDF’s complete destruction, without suffering a military defeat. Incorporating SDF-held territory into the new Syrian government would require the SDF to disarm and disband its security forces, given HTS’s demand for a unitary state ruled from Damascus. Elements of these forces would be reintegrated into the Syrian army alongside other militia groups, some of which have worked to kill and displace Kurdish communities. The SDF’s Kurdish leaders will almost certainly resist such a step, given their previous experience with the abuse of Kurdish civilians in northern Syria by the very forces that would integrate into the Syrian army alongside former SDF fighters.
Turkey and HTS’s coercive effort presents a limited window of opportunity to engage with Turkish and Kurdish parties to avoid a full-scale war which could result in ethnic cleansing. Fighting in northeastern Syria risks ethnically motivated harassment and violence against Kurds there given that Turkish-backed fighters have previously committed atrocities against the Kurdish population and fighters. Turkey’s decision to defer to HTS’s efforts to integrate the SDF into the interim government suggests that Turkey may prefer a negotiated settlement to a politically and militarily costly full-scale assault into Syria by Turkish or Turkish-backed forces. SDF Commander General Mazloum Abdi has similarly called for a dialogue and has reportedly agreed to a Turkish demand to expel non-Syrian Kurds from Syria if the SDF and Turkey and Turkish-backed forces reached a ceasefire in northern Syria. The apparent willingness of Turkey to temporarily forgo direct military action to compel the SDF to dissolve may be exploited to moderate Turkey and its Syrian allies’ maximalist demands.
Key Takeaways:
- HTS, Turkey, and the Syrian Democratic Forces: Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas. The SDF is unlikely to accept Turkish maximalist demands, which would result in the SDF’s complete destruction, without suffering a military defeat.
- HTS Consolidation: It is unclear if HTS leader Ahmad al Shara’s (aka Abu Mohammad al Jolani) vision of appointing a committee of legal experts to write the Syrian constitution will include multi-sectarian and religious representation. Shara and the interim prime minister have, however, appointed loyalists as governors in several provinces and ministers in the transitional government.
- Protests in Syria: Syrian residents of Tartus demonstrated in front of the police headquarters in Tartus City on December 18 to protest the slow interim government response to theft and violent crime in the area. At least hundreds of Syrians also demonstrated in support of a secular, representative government in Damascus on December 19.
- Southern Operations Room in Syria: Syrian media reported that the Southern Operations Room is attempting to unite disparate southern armed factions under the HTS-led interim government, likely in order to increase the relative strength of the Southern Operations Room vis-a-vis the HTS-led Fateh Mubin.
- Israeli Strikes in Yemen: The IDF conducted two waves of airstrikes targeting port and energy infrastructure in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on December 18.
- Houthi Strikes in Israel: The Houthis have conducted two attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on December 18.
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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 12월 18일